26
Mar
Posted in Pre-open Analysis by Bob English |
The Precise Take – Bernanke hints at more QE
Big Picture Analysis – After a strong upside reversal in the ES after the first hour Friday, additional gains were made this morning after Bernanke hinted at additional easing to deal with unemployment. Pending Home Sales at 10:00 am EST and the Dallas Fed Mfg Survey at 10:30 am could be market movers if out of consensus.
Click above images for larger size.
23
Mar
Posted in Pre-open Analysis by Bob English |
The Precise Take – Pause
Big Picture Analysis – Yesterday, sellers could not assert themselves, and ES bulls bought the dip below the MIDAS curve on the 135 minute chart (below) at 1382.50. Today, New Home Sales at 10:00 am and a Bernanke speech at 1:45 pm EST could be market movers on a surprise.
Click above images for larger size.
22
Mar
Posted in Pre-open Analysis by Bob English |
The Precise Take – China leads lower
Big Picture Analysis – A bit of risk off overnight, as the ES traded down to 1386.75, just below volume support. A decisive break could facilitate a larger selloff to potentially as low as ~1370. Today, we have a few minor reports at 10:00 am EST. Due to technical problems, we are not able to provide the support and resistance chart today.
Click above images for larger size.
21
Mar
Posted in Pre-open Analysis by Bob English |
The Precise Take – Consolidating gains
Big Picture Analysis – After a shaky start, yesterday’s weakness was bought in the opening hour and, overnight, the ES poked above 1400 again. For now, it appears recent gains are simply being consolidated. News for today is a Bernanke statement released at the opening bell, Existing Home Sales at 10:00 am EST and EIA Petroleum Status at 10:30 am.
Click above images for larger size.
20
Mar
Posted in Pre-open Analysis by Bob English |
The Precise Take – Exercising caution
Big Picture Analysis – Overnight, futures were down in European trading, and the steep upward trend channel in the 60 minute chart has been broken. However, there is still strong volume support in the ES down to about 1387-88, below which we might see a quick ten handle drop to about 1377. The scheduled news for today is out, with Housing Starts having disappointed slightly.
Click above images for larger size.
19
Mar
Posted in Pre-open Analysis by Bob English |
The Precise Take – No news is…
Big Picture Analysis – As we write, futures are down nominally from Friday’s opex close. The economic calendar this week is dominated by housing related reports, with the Housing Market Index released today at 10:00 am.
Click above images for larger size.
14
Mar
Posted in Pre-open Analysis by Bob English |
[Note: we will be out tomorrow and Friday, to return on Monday]
The Precise Take – Approaching 1400
Big Picture Analysis – Yesterday’s FOMC Announcement contained no surprises, but the leaked bank stress test results facilitated a massive risk rally that had the US indexes closing at their highs. Only minor news after the bell, which is the 10:30 am EST Petroleum Status Report.
Click above images for larger size.
13
Mar
Posted in Pre-open Analysis by Bob English |
The Precise Take – FOMC Day
Big Picture Analysis – As we write Retail Sales came out in line with expectations, but the ES is down slightly, after rallying to new contract highs. Today’s FOMC Announcement at 2:15 pm will be the market mover, and volume will likely be light after the opening hour (note, there will not be a press conference today, as this is a one day meeting only).
Click above images for larger size.
12
Mar
Posted in Pre-open Analysis by Bob English |
The Precise Take – Looking ahead to the Fed
Big Picture Analysis – The only economic release scheduled today is the Treasury Budget at 2:00 pm, which is not expected to be a market mover. Focus is on tomorrow’s FOMC Announcement, with traders looking for hints of sterilized QE, though Retail Sales before the bell will also be important.
Click above images for larger size.
9
Mar
Posted in Pre-open Analysis by Bob English |
The Precise Take – Risk markets spike on Employment Situation beat
Big Picture Analysis – Yesterday’s overnight gains were extended in the day session and, as we write, the ES has spiked to 1373.00 on the jobs beat (note we are still in March and will roll into June on Monday). It appears the 2-3% correction in the US indexes may be it for now, but we are still on alert for a potential bull trap based on price action off this morning’s report. Accordingly, we will be extra cautious fading any early weakness. Wholesale Trade at 10:00 am EST is unlikely to be a market mover, but there is the potential for headline risk regarding Greece.
Click above images for larger size.
