5:12 pm EDT:  We noted in the morning report that the price had reached last Friday’s weak market profile point of control within a tick (955.00 high) and, in the 10:28 am update, posted the 30 minute support and resistance chart update with a green vertical line from the overnight high to the 941.25 point of control with an identical one drawn from 941.25 downwards.  The below 10 minute chart has these same lines and you can see how the low of the day was within half a point of the projection (927.00 low).  By the close, the ES retraced to within a tick of the 941.25 POC, thus completing a perfect 360 degree sinusoidal oscillation today.  The bottom line is 941.25 is the number to watch tomorrow, and we note that we have still not closed above the Jan 6 2009 high of 942.75.

Overnight, if the ES can break above 941.25, it will likely be contained by today’s minor point of control at 950.00 in confluence with day-session-only R1 at 951.50.  If this does not contain price, the confluence of Globex R1, today’s high and weak POC from 954.50 to 955.25 should.  To the downside, long term and today’s point of control confluence are at932.00 to 932.75, with 6 levels of confluence between 925.75 to 928.00.

Update on earlier post:  We mistakenly reported that the 50 day moving average had crossed over the 200 in the ES, SPY and cash S&P 500, when it was only the 20 day that had done so.  Though the 20 closed over the 200, this is not as strong a signal as the 50 doing so.

Not much time to shade the support and resistance levels below, but we’re presenting two scenarios for the overnight range (see gray colored rectangles.   The break of 941.25 or 938.25 will determine the direction.

Though the ES was not able to break morning highs of 949.00 and run stops, the close was not too weak.  Shorts want to see 944.25 hold overnight.  As day-session-only points of control (red line extending right off chart) often serve as overnight highs and lows, 943. 50 could be it.   If the ES breaks above, there is a R1 confluence area right around today’s highs, which should hold.  We expect 934.50 to hold overnight for the longs.

The 61.8% retracement from contract highs contained the market, but just barely.  Shorts covered into the close, so we could see further upside action on a Please Login or Register to read the rest of this content.