Archives for Guest Post category

In this post I want to update briefly the previous warning on copper, followed by some observations on the Commitments of Traders (COT) report for the S&P 500 and Dow Industrials. Finally, I want to return to a pattern in the European indices which, according to the previous post, was reflected in China’s Shanghai Composite.

Update on copper

Those who read my previous post warning on copper will know again how accurate this most recent Topfinder warning was. The key is in fitting TB-Fs correctly. When it warned, the indicator was 99.2 percent done and there was some very noteworthy data too on total open interest readings and normalized Commercial net positioning values from the Commitments of Traders report. Copper began its decline the following day and has fallen 8.7 percent to $6,750 a tonne since. The COT report was warning that copper had run well ahead of market fundamentals and we’ve seen similar declines since in other industrial metals such as zinc, lead and aluminium. As ever, however, timing is fundamental and the Topfinder/Bottomfinder’s signals are often astonishingly accurate.

The common view now is that there’s very little technical support for copper falling at least another 8-9 per cent should the downtrend gain momentum. However, Figure 1 is an updated chart of copper showing several displaced Midas support curves, with the heavy magenta curve the expired Topfinder, the blue line the November 09 trendline (broken), and the light red line the 200 day moving average. True, there’s a lot of support here, but that Topfinder and the November trendline were Intermediate trend breaks (the Intermediate trend = 2-9 months), so we should at least expect a contrary Intermediate size move as a result.

copper daily

Figure 1

In the last post on copper, it was suggested that the likely top in copper was probably coinciding with down moves in China’s SE Composite. In fact, Asian equities have been falling consistently over this period, with the MSCI Asia ex-Japan reaching a two month low. China increased its bank ratios as expected and its increasingly tougher stance on monetary policy has shouldered much of the blame for this decline in equities along with the carry unwinding implications of a strengthening US dollar.

The S&P 500 and the Commitments of Traders report

In a couple of posts over the weekend, David drew attention to several volume-based indicators which were warning of heavy distribution and that even though the Intermediate term Topfinder was 83 per cent done, other Midas-based and trendline-based analyses were indicating that the trend could well be over.

In Figures 2 and 3 I’ve included COT report data showing that total open interest in both the Dow and the S&P futures is at its lowest since 2000 levels (just off the chart) when we were last approaching a Secular term top in equities. What’s fascinating about current net positioning data in these two equity index futures markets is that total open interest being virtually at zero (!) is reflected in the net positioning of the Commercials (hedgers) and NonCommercials (large funds and speculators) also having virtually no commitment in this market.

In contexts such as this, especially at an Intermediate term top, we’d expect to see the funds net long and the hedgers net short (take a look, for example, at their positions in early 2008), but the funds have had virtually no long positions in either market since last March and they actually started shorting it during its first significant pullback — a strong indication of how edgy the funds were at this time, even on limited market commitments. This actual level of low-lying risk appetite in the large funds and speculators is in stark contrast to other fundamental indicators such as the VIX and the narrowing credit spreads as a result of the take-up of high yield (junk) bond issuance. At one stage not so long ago the fortunes of the US dollar were also heavily linked to increasing risk appetite in equities. The COT report since March 2009 emphatically shows that large funds were not net long US equities, since there has been virtually no reflection of risk appetite in these futures markets.

Continue reading the rest of this post.

Also, check out David Dawkins’ weekend posts on the S&P here, here and here.

This is a guest post by Damien Hoffman of Wall St. Cheat Sheet

Rahul Sood has entrepreneurial cells ripping through his veins. He is most well known for founding luxury computer company VooDooPC in 1991 and selling it to Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) in 2006. Most recently, Rahul has merged his entrepreneurial prowess with his passion for investing. The result is a fantastic investing and trading resource called Bulls On Wall Street.

Bulls On Wall Street uses the popular Twitter platform to crowd-source investing and trading ideas. According to the Bulls engineers, approximately 10,000 people use the $$ and $ tags to discuss stocks on Twitter (the active users are in the range of 2500-7500, depending on how “active” is defined). Rahul’s mission is to build a premium community for the growing number of investors seeking to benefit from social media.

Rahul and I sat down to discuss his incredibly inspiring career path, his exciting new company Bulls On Wall Street, and his secrets to entrepreneurial success …

Damien Hoffman: Rahul, how did Bulls On Wall Street get started?

Rahul: I use Twitter a great deal to research customer feedback, complaints, response to products, etc. I noticed there were a large number of “traders” using Twitter as a way to communicate what stocks they were trading. I wrote a blog on the background of this phenomenon, but the bottom line is after viewing the stream I realized most of the communication was useless commentary — it wasn’t enough for an avid investor.

So, I started an experiment with a few friends. We wanted to take the concept further as there are only a few people who actually provide actionable data that one could choose to follow or not. We envisioned an engine that would show the user who the most influential and effective traders are so they could choose who they want to follow. It also aggregates all of the trading data on Twitter and combines it with research to see what could come out of it.

In a nutshell, the platform is a community effort — a “Gathering of Minds” of investors and traders. There are multiple moving pieces. Currently it’s designed for active traders, but in the future there will be resources for people with day jobs that don’t have time to manage their portfolios. In addition, our educational resource Bulls University is starting to take shape. Bulls University is designed for people who want to learn various types of trading, including swing, technical, fundamental, options, long term investing etc.

Damien: I notice you don’t have a Recommended List of people to follow. How do your community members know which investors/traders are worth watching?

Rahul: There is a system in place that helps you pinpoint the best investors thereby avoiding those bad investments that many of us have been caught holding. Ultimately, the system automatically decides who the cream is and let’s them rise to the top via a complex algorithm. It’s called the Bulls Influence-O-Meter.

Damien: Very interesting. Sounds like a great way to eliminate politics and other behind the scenes biases. Speaking of biases, why did you remain anonymous while launching Bulls?

Rahul: Good question. I started Bulls as a personal experiment to see if my theory of crowd sourcing for research and answers would work.  I remember telling a billionaire friend about the idea and he didn’t like it.  His biggest concern was the potential for pumpers to push their own agenda on others. My goal was to mitigate this risk as much as possible.

After taking my friend’s feedback into consideration, we wanted to ensure that risks of “pump and dumps” could be eliminated, technical analysis was sound, and fundamental research was accurate. We succeeded. It wasn’t hard because Twitter is fully exposed. Even though most people have handles, it’s very easy to spot the winners and latch on to them. You see, it’s not about randomly following traders into their trades — it’s about gathering the data from the top rated traders, and passing that data to the best of the best to evaluate and disseminate the information before taking a position!

Now of course not every investment is a winner. However, with proper risk management I was up over 400% overall in a 3 month period on a very part-time basis. So, the founding group decided it was time to launch a public beta.

We found some of the best traders on Twitter. There are only a handful of truly talented traders on Twitter who provide actionable data. We have the best group — no question about it.  You can search the history of each one and look at all the testimonials. It’s amazing.

So to answer your question, the reason I stayed anonymous is I didn’t want people who follow me personally — on Facebook, Twitter, and my blog — to blindly jump in unless I was sure that it was as good as I thought it was.

Damien: One of the most famous criticisms of public market gurus is “If they are so good, why are they spending time telling others about their secrets?” Can you explain why you and your talented team are interested in sharing their knowledge and trading ideas?

Rahul: You’re 110% correct. Most investors keep their secrets, which doesn’t help the retail investor. The goal of Bulls is to empower the retail investor — to turn the sheep into wolves and expose the sharks.  This is my way of paying it forward and helping others succeed. I am a firm believer that what goes around comes around. That is why we participated and helped to create the Bulls community.

Damien: What are some “pay it forward” ideas you are invested in now?

Rahul: I rarely find good small caps in North America that I like, but I enjoy many of the small caps in China. I invest in anything from organic food, coal, textiles, oil, green energy, and emerging technologies. I also invest in big cap companies on our side of the pond. I have found one American small cap that I love – it’s called Syntroleum (SYNM). Amazing company with one of the best management teams I’ve seen. I like the fact that they’re turning chicken fat into clean green diesel. They will have a plant online in 2010 that will produce 75,000,000 gallons a year of this fine fatty gas. The cool part is they’re 50% partnered with Tyson Foods, which is awesome for a small cap company, and Tyson has plenty of chicken fat to unload.

Damien: Rahul, you are the CTO of a business development group at Hewlett-Packard. How do you have time to research prospective investments?

Rahul: I work from home. I spend most of my time researching new companies, new technologies, etc. It doesn’t take much for me to do research using the Bulls platform and Twitter.  Investing in companies, private or public, is something I’ve always done. As an entrepreneur, I’m afraid it’s in my blood.

I am a very public person and involved in social media. I get people complimenting and complaining to me all the time. Now that my Bulls identity is public, people will understand why I always tell traders to run out and buy 2 HP 30″ displays for their workstations!

Damien: That’s an awesome convergence of your daily work flow. However, I’ve noticed a lot of new day traders who are attempting to trade full-time. Obviously, the loss of jobs coupled with high intra-day volatility has attracted a new wave of wanna-be day traders. Has the number of people day trading receded now that markets have calmed and intraday trading is not as simple as shorting anything that moves?

Rahul: There is a significant trend of retail investors who fired their brokers after the crash of 2008 and they’re trying to take control of their own finances. The number of discount brokerage accounts that were opened in the last year were much higher than normal.

The markets this year were unpredictable, but if one were patient and focused on individual company fundamentals rather than trying to be Nostradamus they probably did very well. I expect this trend to continue. People are starting to trade stocks at a much younger age, and the tools available to us now are like nothing we’ve ever seen in our lifetimes. Do you remember what it was like in 1993?  My goodness man. Brokers, promoters, and telephones. I can’t believe how far we’ve come.

Damien: The industry has made some incredible evolutions. For those who are interested in stepping into the future, but may not know how, can you please explain what steps someone should take to get started at Bulls On Wall Street?

Rahul: Sure.

1) Go to www.bullsonwallstreet.com and view the intro video to get an idea of how things work.
2) Login with your Twitter account.
3) Make sure you follow @bullsonwallst from Twitter to ensure that your tweets appear on our stream when you use the “$$”, “$” in front of a stock symbol, or #bows tags in your tweets.
4) Visit the Premium page and click on some of the videos on the bottom left.
5) Watch the stream for a few days and choose who to follow.

The site is still in beta. So, I would recommend people get a feel for it first. You may want to follow @copperstl, @kunal00, @urban_ryno, @stockgod to start. Visit the Bullpen, our community forum, and ask questions. I would also recommend reading through all the blogs! @copperstl is probably your best bet to follow as a beginner, get connected with her and she can put you on the right path.

In the remainder of my interview with Rahul, we learn how Rahul built VooDooPC and sold it to HP, and Rahul shares his top secrets to success. Those topics plus my acclaimed collection of exclusive interviews (with tons of bonus material) can be found in my upcoming book release: Interviews with the Brightest Minds on Wall Street. To make a free reservation for your copy from our first printing, simply click here and enter your information in the right sidebar.

Exclusive Interview: A Brief Update on Housing and Consumer Credit

cut-credit-card-288x300David Proman is a Fixed Income Portfolio Manager for a boutique Investment Fund. Yesterday I caught up with him to get a brief update on housing and consumer credit …

Damien Hoffman: David, housing seems to be stabilizing and consumer credit is continuing to deleverage. Can you give us an update from your professional view?

David: I am scared to see there is virtually no non-government mortgage funding going on today. Non-agency loans now account for around only 1.5% of mortgages being originated. This means that unless a bank can turn around and sell a loan to Fannie or Freddie the day the loan is made, the bank will not make the loan. The banks cannot afford any more risk on their balance sheets.

This country will not experience any kind of real growth until we find a way to spur the private credit markets again. Securitization of mortgages, credit cards, small business loans, and just about any other type of debt, created an incredible expansion of credit over the last decade. Unfortunately, greed took its place and leverage ruined the game for everyone.

Now we are back to square one and taxpayers are carrying the burden. It is extremely painful to withstand the massive de-leveraging, but the government is doing as good a job as possible to ease the pain. The big question is how do we transition back to private lending?

Stricter lending guidelines will need to be set and enforced. Investors need to regain faith in lending money/buying loans. The only way that can happen is if lending is truly safe again. Lenders/investors will need to know that their rights are protected and they don’t need to fear hasty foreclosure proceedings, servicers not doing their jobs, cram downs, and the erosion of contract law in America. To achieve success, a high standard of servicing will need to be set in place and enforced, foreclosure procedures and time lines must be created, and a much more efficient and trustworthy loan underwriting process must be established.

In addition, demand for housing must catch up to supply. This could take a long time — especially in areas like California, Nevada, Arizona and South Florida. Until this happens, a very large quantity of housing values will still be below the loans held against them. High LTV (loan-to-value) ratios are eliminating any chances for refinancing and in turn creating a slew of homeowners that are just walking away from their obligations. Many people have little to no equity in their homes.

As it stands, the big banks are hoarding government money and finding any way to screw customers. Interest rates on credit cards are soaring even though the banks can borrow money pretty much free of cost. This country needs to fight back and form a habit of saving money. Consumption is great for the growth of the economy, but only hurts if it is bankrupting citizens. For credit to work, it needs to be provided in a way that is not egregious.

In short, consumer credit cannot truly be restored until the housing crisis is fixed. This could take many years. In the meantime, we need to get back to basics. Save money, invest wisely, and figure out different ways to create organic growth from new ideas and technology.

Read more at Wall St. Cheat Sheet

From the recently debuted Interviews and Awards section of our friends’ website, Wall St. Cheat Sheet, Damien Hoffman interviews TIME’s Justin Fox…

justin-foxThe Efficient Market Hypothesis has been used as a one-size-fits-all explanation for how financial markets work. The idea that “markets are rational” justified much of the Laissez Faire policies which allowed global markets to get terrorized in 2008. However, Justin Fox’s outstanding bookThe Myth of the Rational Market: A History of Risk, Reward, and Delusion on Wall Streetferrets out the false underlying presuppositions of our financial world view.

I had the opportunity to do a long form interview with Justin — much too long for the attention span of my beloved blog readers. So, below Justin discusses the myth of financial market efficiency. At the conclusion, please add yourself to our email list to read the full interview in my upcoming book Interviews with the Brightest Minds on Wall Street. Without further ado …

Damien Hoffman: Justin, how did you build the framework you use to write about business and economics?

Justin:  While I was at Fortune in the mid-’90s, financial markets seemed to be doing great things and the US — which had a more financial-market-focused economy — was doing better than the bank dominated economies like Germany and Japan.  I bought into the whole idea that financial markets are pretty good things and free markets work in the end.

One of the things I ended up doing at Fortune was covering the intersection between corporate management and financial markets.  There were lots of different debates and phenomena about corporate America becoming very interested in stock prices and the stock market.

I wrote an article in ’97 about the phenomenon of managing earnings: moving earnings from quarter to quarter, meeting the consensus forecasts, and spending a lot of time negotiating with analysts to make sure the consensus forecast is something companies can meet or beat.  I looked into a lot of academic research done by accounting professors.  There were lots of articles pointing out evidence that corporate managers went to great efforts to manage their earnings — to keep them smooth and meet earnings targets.

This was problematic because the assumption was markets were perfectly efficient and there was no way that tweaking earnings would have any impact on a stock price.  Supposedly, the markets would see through that behavior.  That struck me as a little strange.  No one had even investigated whether managing earnings helped a stock price.

Not long after I wrote that article, a flood of research started coming out to examine why people were managing their earnings.  The efficient market assumption was finally being challenged.  Since then I have spent a great deal of time applying this information to my framework and writing.

Damien: Which intersects with your highly acclaimed book, The Myth of the Rational Market. Can you further explain this myth?

Justin:  First, we must differentiate the financial markets from other markets — for example toothpaste, potatoes, or whatever.  One of the big mistakes financial economists made in the ‘60s and ‘70s was looking at the financial markets and concluding, “Oh wow! These markets must be much more efficient than those for goods because they are much more liquid and their prices change much more often.”  Those economists were missing that financial markets, for the most part, are prediction markets.  Markets are groups of people speculating about the future earnings of a company, the future income from a loan, or cash flows from some derivate.

When the entire market is guessing about the future, it’s very hard to define “correct” or “rational”.  Financial markets can’t make rational decisions unless you have a pretty good framework of knowledge.  It’s fairly easy to make a rational decision about what kind of toothpaste to buy because it’s something that’s repeated through your life.  If you buy a different brand and you don’t like it, you go back to the one you like.

However, in financial markets the future never exactly repeats the past.  So, it’s much harder to articulate the perfectly rational strategy.  The rational action can be different things at different times.

People are not necessarily crazy.  Individual investors can be either rational or irrational.  In hindsight we can concoct a theory of rationality.  However, even at that point , the moods of the market helped create the reality at which you’re looking.

So, it’s all very recursive and makes my head hurt — and other things, for that matter [Laughing].  So, my sense is we ought to still have free financial markets, but we need to recognize that they’re always going to be prone to bubbles and bursts — mass hysterics and mass panics.

Damien: If markets have repeatedly proven irrationality and inefficiencies arise every day,  why do think we ended up clinging to the University of Chicago school of thought like an extremist religion?

Justin:  First of all, some people are still clinging to it.  People like having very simple explanations of the world.  However, in reality, different explanations work at different times.  I don’t think there is any simple theory that explains it all.

Second, from the period of the late ‘70s through 2008, their theories seemed to be working reasonably well.  Meaning, letting financial markets set the agenda seemed to work for the US economy.  There were people from the beginning of the ‘80s who were complaining about the rise of Wall Street and how much debt Americans were taking on.  But the economy kept growing and a lot of people did really well.  So, people stuck to that world view because it seemed to be working.  That was Alan Greenspan’s explanation when he testified before Congress last November.

Damien: Now that Greenspan has testified and the cat is out of the bag with this grand experiment — that it didn’t work out as planned — who do you see stepping into the void with new theories?

Justin:  I don’t think we know yet.  I definitely see reasons for understanding that the efficient market theory explains only certain things and not a lot of other things.  However, I don’t see a new explanation that explains everything.

When I started working on the book, I thought behavioral economics and behavioral finance might answer a lot of questions using the insights of psychology and empirical research into individual investing.  But those theories haven’t offered very good explanations for why we had a financial panic last year.  So, I ended the book in a little bit of a muddle because I’m not really clear what the new paradigm will be.

There are a lot of people trying to take insights from physics and other studies of adaptive systems in biology and elsewhere.  Maybe they’re going to get a great model at some point, but they are not there yet.  So, we’re in a situation where the old theory, despite all its flaws, might stick it out for a while yet.


 

Disclaimer: The information presented on this site is for educational purposes only. No personal trade recommendations are being made hereby. Trading futures is highly risky and you can lose a substantial amount of money. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

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