1 Sep
Pre-open eMini S&P 500 Morning Report for September 1 2010
Posted in Pre-open Analysis by Bob English at 9:18:11 8 CommentsThe Precise Take – Equities bounce from support as summer draws to a close
Big Picture Analysis: Yesterday, the third test of 1037 was a charm–for the time being–as a strong close yesterday precipitated an overnight rise to test Monday’s opening area in the low 1060′s. We would expect shorts to re-exert at the 1069-71 resistance area or 1077-81 area. The risk markets are friendlier overnight, with the US Dollar down, and the Euro up, against their major crosses. The three day US Labor Day weekend lies ahead with some major reports in the interim, beginning with ISM today at 10:00 am. We may not get an intermediate term trend underway until traders return next Tuesday, so be on alert for continued reversals.
Trading Today: The upper end of the projected range contains the new monthly pivot and day-session-only R3, from 1069.00 to 1071.00. The 1062.25 to 1063.75 area is also strong resistance and contains the daily R2′s and previous price action. The lower end contains yesterday’s high and day-session-only R1, from 1053.50 to 1055.25.
elliswyatt
on September 1 2010 at 11:04:19
Above 1081, would you watch 1084, 1087, then 1092 and then start to wonder about carry juice? I don’t see any signs of twitching for the ejector handle. The FED just juiced another $900M to the PDs at S/A of 28.65 (Twenty-Eight Point Six Five).
Bob English
on September 1 2010 at 12:42:53
From 77 to 82, we have the 20 and 50 MAs, high volume level, and 50% retracement of entire Aug down leg. Leverage ratios are extended pretty far, and if we’re still in a mean reversion environment, the party will be over at a not too much higher price. Despite some strong institutional support today, I still don’t think the pros are back in control of this market, so I’m not worrying about trying to predict beyond the next few hours. Higher resistance levels, all based on price action and not major, are 1084.50, 89.75, 93.75, 98.00, 1104.00. For the record, I don’t see weakness yet today.
spainconsultant
on September 1 2010 at 14:21:39
Is a machines combat……..
We just cross the 3 minutes 50 MA for first time in the session (open market) after the second try to the 79.50 …………maybe we had the top………..maybe not
Bob English
on September 1 2010 at 14:31:28
Something to think about from MarketTells.com
Wednesday, September 1st, 2010 at 1:20pm
Examining Dow Industrials data since 1900, I found only 11 instances in which the Dow gained 1%+ on the first trading day of September. Interestingly, the gain usually marked a good time to exit the market or sell short over the remainder of the month. The Dow rallied over the next 20 trading days 5 times and fell 6 times, but the average gain was only 0.8%, with only one occurrence leading to a gain of more than 1%, while the average loss was a whopping 5.6%, with all losses exceeding 2%…
spainconsultant
on September 1 2010 at 14:40:24
Interesting but
a) We had to check that, I read sp500 was up more than 2 % in 1997 and 1998
b) 1st september is not over yet
Much interesting anyway, thanks Bob!!
spainconsultant
on September 1 2010 at 15:41:36
Well now I would bet a Hooters beer that Dow Jones does finish above 1 % gain today………….
Jeff
on September 1 2010 at 16:24:54
Tweet from sentimentrader from this morning…
“Looong day ahead, but if 1st day of Sept was >+1%, then S&P was up 5/6 times rest of the month, +1.8% avg, -2.9% drawdown, +4.0% max gain.$$ ”
Gotta love contradictory data, eh?
Bob English
on September 1 2010 at 16:54:28
It’s not hard to get conflicting data, which is why you should take them with a grain of salt. I do pay attention to the big outliers.