30 Aug
Pre-open eMini S&P 500 Morning Report for August 30 2010
Posted in Pre-open Analysis by Bob English at 9:19:04 4 CommentsThe Precise Take – ES attempting to rally on breakout
Big Picture Analysis: The Bernanke speech did not disappoint in terms of volatility Friday, as the equity indexes managed yet another early morning turnaround, this time to close at their highs. Again, we have the possibility of a rally, as support held twice last week at 1037 and the ES has broken out of its downward channel (below), but there are several obstacles that shorts can use to kill any rally attempt. There are inklings that the debt situation in Europe could start grabbing headlines soon, and the Bank of Japan has been shown to be ineffectual in attempting to reign in Yen strength. Accordingly the Euro and Australian Dollar are down materially. The one positive is the huge reversal in long term Treasurys Friday–the big one we had been waiting for (though we must admit we had nearly given up), with the T-Bond futures down nearly three big points. A Treasury market slide won’t by itself create an equities rally, but it can certainly help at certain key times. Big news items this week include Wednesday’s ISM Manufacturing Index and Friday’s Employment Situation. The key range to watch the next few days appears to be 1055 to 1081.
Jeff
on August 30 2010 at 12:35:19
Now I could be wrong (and I usually am – just ask my wife) but it sure seems that ~1055 isn’t going to hold today. Any thoughts, Bob?
Bob English
on August 30 2010 at 14:25:25
No need to speculate now as you’ve been proven right. Unless we get a strong bounce off 1051.00 (50% retrace on day session), I don’t have high hopes for equities. Treas. futures have now retraced most of the big Friday plunge and if EURCHF breaks 1.300 convincingly, risk markets could get hammered overnight.
spainconsultant
on August 31 2010 at 02:30:23
Wife complaining is a strategy Jeff. They don´t want a strong sell-confident husband because:
a) He can go overconfident and as men are usually riskier-prone than women, make troubles they want to avoid
b) Self-confident happy man attract nice (usually younger) girls……. with nice bodys…….. nobody likes competence
You were right and deserve the recognition, bravo!
spainconsultant
on August 31 2010 at 04:42:32
And 3rd time this days that the 1037-1040 hold………nsimum time in the year………..in spain we say “Tanto va el cantaro a la fuente………que al final se rompe”