The Precise Take – Equity futures consolidating ahead of Bernanke speech

Big Picture Analysis:  GDP had been sufficiently talked down that this morning’s revision for the worse was supportive of equities.  Now, attention turns to Bernanke’s speech released at 10:00 am, though Consumer Sentiment released 5 minute prior could also cause some movement.  Per below, it’s evident the ES is still in its downward trend channel, but is basing in the blue value area.  A push above 1059 is needed to generate momentum, which sets up a move to the 1080-81 first major resistance area.  While 1040-41 is support, a break of 1045 today probably signals it will not hold.  While the Yen is weaker against most crosses, which is generally supportive of equities, 10 Year futures are treading sideways.  It would be uncharacteristic for them to top in this fashion, so we should be alert to the possibility of another up move, which would weigh on equities in the coming days.

Trading Today:  The upper end of the projected range contains price action near yesterday’s high, from 1058.25 to 1059.25.  The lower end contains yesterday’s settlement and 4:00 pm close, from 1044.75 to 1046.25.  If the lower end is reached, it has less a chance of holding the later it is reached.

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