26 Aug
Pre-open eMini S&P 500 Morning Report for August 26 2010
Posted in Pre-open Analysis by Bob English at 9:12:21 12 CommentsThe Precise Take – Equity futures up on Jobless Claims, ahead of weekend financial summit
Big Picture Analysis: Yesterday, the ES managed a bounce off what was major support prior to the break of the 1035-40 area on June 29. As we write, bulls are also taking advantage of a moderately less-bad jobless claims report. The first major upside target is the 50% retracement of the August down leg in confluence with the 50 day moving average at about 1081. The last of the week’s large Treasury auctions is over today at 1:00 pm EDT, which was favorable to equities the prior month. We have been waiting for a large reversal in the 10 Year to signal its massive bull run may be over, which would be supportive of equities. Yesterday was close, but did not quite cut it, however. The first revision to Q2 GDP is released tomorrow pre-market and, thereafter, Bernanke speaks at Jackson Hole, with many expecting hints of further easing. Expectations of GDP have lowered significantly in the past weeks, so Bernanke could hold the key to…
spainconsultant
on August 26 2010 at 11:13:12
Wow, fast, suddenly in a quite day so far……Was this Kansas city Fed or some other news? Just making the bonds to feel confortable prior the auction?
spainconsultant
on August 26 2010 at 11:16:08
…….May have been just Ellis closing his longs in the 60 area
Bob English
on August 26 2010 at 11:33:54
As long as the 1049.75 to 1051.25 area holds, bulls are not in trouble. This area contains the daily pivot and two Midas curves launched from the prior two days’ lows. This means the average position measured from those lows is still profitable.
mahmed
on August 26 2010 at 11:50:36
El Economista reported that a Court has determined the way the Spanish Tax Agency was collecting VAT revenues (over the 2006-08 period) was illegal and, therefore, it now owes 5.1Bn to taxpayers. This decision cannot be appealed since the Court (TEAC Tribunal Economico Administrativo Central) is the highest within its jurisdiction……..Eur usd profit taking on back of Spanish Tax Agency issue , needing to refund 5.19 bio eur to taxpayers ( the austerity measures just inacted only saved 5.9 bio Eur )
May not be material news; we got a knee-jerk reaction anyway
Bob English
on August 26 2010 at 14:18:02
Thanks. Sounds like a back door stimulus to avoid the ire of Brussels.
spainconsultant
on August 26 2010 at 14:29:50
Don´t worry for spanish hacienda………at the end they will win and get the money……….you´re supposed to be innocent unless proven otherwise, except for a tax inspector and you would love this: they get a bonus for the money they confiscate (in inspection), no joke!
I think the 11 am move may have something to do with Kansas Fed indicator http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20100826-711833.html and thinking back to reality about that so good 471.000!!! weekly claims . I remember some 2 months ago a figure about housing……… they chorus predicated: better than expected…………and was the second worst monthly number in record …….
Anyway I see a red line in the report Bob in 1046.25 I´m a little ashamed of asking this after a year around here every day……..but what is this? kind of down trend confirmation, S2 or similar?
Bob English
on August 26 2010 at 15:05:43
Red line is a high volume level from the prior day. Blue is long term high volume level. I didn’t put a PRA there b/c likelihood was if daily pivot was taken out, there would be enough downside momentum to get to S1–now 5 ticks away.
elliswyatt
on August 26 2010 at 18:51:11
It’s nice to be thought so tricky, SC, but I was out of equities yesterday and breathed deeply to be so. I could pull no triggers today. Long in the morning looked like a BASE jump, and short through the 7Y looked like a lap dance. The last hour my data were just a mess. Hesitation is a great and powerful defense mechanism – it’s the body telling the brain, “you are ignoring your data and you are about to gamble. Stop pushing keys right now and get a Popsicle instead.”
Until the Toughbooks in Jackson Hole click off “track changes” mode, I may just buy a block of PHYS and go fishing.
mahmed
on August 27 2010 at 05:33:53
I was slightly net long and very happy after the open but grinded lower throughout the day which ended with a minor gain, nothing to write home about
spainconsultant
on August 27 2010 at 07:19:17
Happy fishing Ellis, you clever guy
funny, but it´s always nice to write home…….and there much worst thing to write about that an small gain, a gain is a gain
Mahmed,
We are pretty much in the some place since Tuesday……… the 1050 magnet. I see a 4 days wedge so far.
BlogJungle
on August 27 2010 at 19:27:55
Day Trading E-Mini S&p Futures Video….
I found your entry interesting and I’ve added a Trackback to it on my weblog
…
robb
on August 28 2010 at 22:10:05
just wanted to say hi to everyone and this is my first post in the comments section….