25 Aug
Pre-open eMini S&P 500 Morning Report for August 25 2010
Posted in Pre-open Analysis by Bob English at 9:09:32 11 CommentsThe Precise Take – Equity futures down again overnight on disappointing Durable Goods
Big Picture Analysis: Yesterday’s early plunge down to 1044.00 in the ES on the Home Sales report had the makings of a multiday reversal, but proved to be only an intraday bear trap, as the ES hit 1041.00 on this morning’s Durable Goods report. Some major technical levels were taken out in the leaders yesterday, which suggests more downside in equities, even if there is a brief respite. A big downside reversal in long term Treasury futures will be an equities bullish sign to watch out for. The ES is now entering the early July base, which should slow the decline and perhaps allow for an oversold pop. The caveat is that the markets are susceptible to bad news and a…
spainconsultant
on August 25 2010 at 09:58:16
Markets looks nervous…….Spanish market is holding on key support also right now. 2,5 % down after being even briefly up in the european morning. We hold several days in the 10.000 now 9800 Imagine you all know but Dow Jones is below 10.000 also right now. Housing data in 2 minutes……
Bob English
on August 25 2010 at 10:13:51
Deja vu…except push down to S2 instead of S3 like yesterday.
spainconsultant
on August 25 2010 at 10:24:14
CAC, Eurostoxx and Ibex (Spain) are being hit hard………. still not far from lows
Where´s S3? just in case……
Bob English
on August 25 2010 at 10:38:56
Close to monthly/M-S1: 1027.75 to 1028.75
mahmed
on August 25 2010 at 11:04:02
Durable goods order was terrible.
Home Sales were a record low.
There is talk of Sovereign default.
There is a treasury auction, I believe.
Bob is holding up really well. If I shorted at will at the open, I would lose money.
elliswyatt
on August 25 2010 at 11:34:34
Big on-balance volume spike in the SPY at 11:10am EDT, co-incident with Williams %R high of the day. Is this the oversold pop, or the MM’s multi-day will being expressed? The 10Y is lagging, and the Aussie is stuck in range limbo. Euro looks strabismic between the CHF move and the JPY. Long for minutes, hours (1052?) or days (107N) seems to be the question from here.
Bob English
on August 25 2010 at 12:20:48
If the MM’s were going to shake out the shorts, I think they should have been able to do it yesterday. Sovereign situation is heating up again, and we’re again approaching a precipice. I think we’ll get some sort of CB intervention that saves the day, but it might not be until after another big down leg. For now, I’m focusing on very short term setups. A close above the daily gap/pivot/upper end at 1049.75 to 1050.75 looks key to starting some short covering. Would not want to be long below 1043.
mahmed
on August 25 2010 at 15:54:29
A little bit of turnaround, eh?
Bob English
on August 25 2010 at 16:18:49
Yes…big one in the 10 Yr yield, though not as pronounced in the futures.
mahmed
on August 25 2010 at 16:38:04
I did not notice that; please elaborate what you see
spainconsultant
on August 25 2010 at 17:06:19
This is more joke than anything else, but what I see is if ES fall in parachute from the 1060-1066 area to the 20-ish you will finish the draw of a perfect castle or cathedral in the 135 minutes chart……