20 Aug
Pre-open eMini S&P 500 Morning Report for August 20 2010
Posted in Pre-open Analysis by Bob English at 9:09:34 11 CommentsThe Precise Take – ES below trading range on opex
Big Picture Analysis: Yesterday, the ES closed just above the lower end of its 1070 to 1100 range, but broke it overnight. We’re willing to entertain the possibility that this is a shakeout; however, for the bulls to avoid another down leg to the 1018 to 1025 support area, they will need to assert control early today. As far as the Fed’s Treasury purchases yesterday, they amounted to an above average $3.5 billion, but there was no immediate or delayed effect with respect to equities. Until more data is generated, there is no pattern to trade.
The Euro is down about 1% against both the US Dollar and Yen, also down again against the Swiss Franc. We were looking for a close in 10 Year T-Note futures below 125’15 to confirm a top. Instead, they have…
Twitted by JT707
on August 20 2010 at 09:22:26
[...] This post was Twitted by JT707 [...]
Tweets that mention Pre-open eMini S&P 500 Morning Report for August 20 2010 | The Precision Report -- Topsy.com
on August 20 2010 at 09:44:08
[...] This post was mentioned on Twitter by Bob English, Jennifer Titilah. Jennifer Titilah said: RT @Bob_English: New blog post: Pre-open eMini S&P 500 Morning Report for August 20 2010 http://bit.ly/9Ku13i [...]
elliswyatt
on August 20 2010 at 10:48:50
I thought I’d pass along this eminently sensible note about the Hindenburg omen, from Bespoke. Nutshell – new highs in fixed income issues are not being filtered from the “new highs” counts by the MSM. Which hardly contributes to the confusion-prior-panic of which the indicator is supposed to warn, since fix-inc investors, though possibly panicky, are most likely anything but confused about what they are doing:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/221203-know-your-indicators-hindenburg-omen
Bob English
on August 20 2010 at 11:14:47
Thanks. That does make sense. Also, a similar argument is made against NYSE breadth statistics used for things like the McClellan oscillator. However, McC defends his use of the statistics. Personally, I’m waiting for implied correlation to drop before I look at breadth again. Right now, it’s still at record highs:
http://www.cboe.com/publish/ScheduledTask/MktData/datahouse/implied_correlation_hist.csv
mahmed
on August 20 2010 at 14:00:16
Your range is very good so far once again. It is also getting late, so bulls may not have time to make a comeback. Fridays have normally been bad the last few months.
Bob English
on August 20 2010 at 14:26:31
Thanks, I’ve been weighting price action more heavily recently. I thought equities would be in trouble in the afternoon if they hadn’t already bounced back, but EURJPY and AUDJPY put in strong reversals off the overnight low. 10 Yr yield also bullish since the 8:20 am open. Probably be a quiet opex close. Would definitely not stick around long on new lows, though I don’t expect to see new lows.
Jeff
on August 20 2010 at 14:58:39
If I had to make a prediction, I would say there will be some strength early next, based on some of my more reliable indicators. If I’m still feeling frisky in 60 minutes, I may even carry a small long position into the weekend. *gasp* Nice work today, Bob. Thanks. Have a grand weekend everyone!
Bob English
on August 20 2010 at 15:56:38
Big move out of T-Note futures into the 3pm pit close. Also, leverage indicator is on the verge of a bullish breakout, but will not be confirmed until early Mon. morning. I’d like to see a close above 1073 in ES to support the bull case.
Note: wrote this at 3:30 pm, but did not post for some reason.
sdg
on August 20 2010 at 16:27:19
Thanks Bob. Have a nice weekend all.
spainconsultant
on August 22 2010 at 16:35:38
As Mahmed I had the idea of Fridays down this last months. So I went to yahoo and download the SP500 (cash) data for every day. Based on the moves in the cash market for the day I found some clues about the Fridays that i give below. It´s important to reflect that is for the market and only intra-day (close-open) so does not consider the gaps.
For this year 2010 Friday is in fact the weakest day, the net result for all year Fridays are -128 points, Thursdays also down with -37.06 points, Wednesday 23,40 up, Tuesday 9,20 and Monday´s magical jump hold the thing with 114. The net result for all days of the week in intraday is -18.46 and yesterday SP500 closed -44.87 of first day of year open.
For the period since July 1 so the current 7 and a half weeks of this quarter, results are similar as Fridays are again the weakest day -20.27 points for a combined Monday Friday overall intraday of 52.01 , and 40.59 market up August 20 close from July 1 open
In 2009, 2008 and 2007 Fridays aggregated results were not so weak, with +9,58 -47.17 and + 20.76, not being neither the weakest of the stronger day……..
Disclaimer: Arithmetic a Excel operation are highly complex areas for a lazy dilettante like me, don’t trade or bet against your wife market opinions according to this figures, they could be wrong and the result embarrassing
Bob English
on August 23 2010 at 08:27:12
Thanks, SC. I should update the day of week and time of day charts I’ve posted in the past.