19 Aug
Pre-open eMini S&P 500 Morning Report for August 19 2010
Posted in Pre-open Analysis by Bob English at 9:08:29 5 CommentsGoing forward, the Big Picture Analysis will be combined with the Leaders Analysis
The Precise Take – Equity futures maintaining after disappointing Jobless Claims
Big Picture Analysis: Despite two consecutive selloffs on the close, action on the daily chart for the major indices looks relatively benign. With opex tomorrow, we shouldn’t read too much into any extreme intraday moves as long as the 1070 to 1100 range is respected on a closing basis. In fact, a swift down turn to the low 1070′s to scare out the weak longs looks increasingly probable. The Fed will also be purchasing another $2 to 3 billion in Treasurys today. Whether it will be as supportive of equities as it was the first half of Tuesday remains to be seen, but the potential for volatility remains as there will be two economic reports released just prior at 10:00 am. 10 Year T-Note futures appear to have started their decline, though the overnight weakness was reversed sharply on the Jobless report. A close below 125’15 (basis Sep 10) suggests an interim top, which would be supportive of equities on any future sharp down moves–but not necessarily so on…
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on August 19 2010 at 09:17:39
[...] This post was mentioned on Twitter by Bob English, Jennifer Titilah. Jennifer Titilah said: RT @Bob_English: New blog post: Pre-open eMini S&P 500 Morning Report for August 19 2010 http://bit.ly/acklGp [...]
Bob English
on August 19 2010 at 10:44:40
SPY is causing pain for those 108 put sellers and wiping out the last bit of call premium from the 110′s and higher. That 1073.25 target in the ES is the monthly pivot and could be the low. If we go too much lower, this baby could snowball and get real.
Bob English
on August 19 2010 at 11:16:51
I’m liking this leverage chart. Warning was given early yesterday on break of yellow trendline, then again early today on break of cyan. For anyone who wants to play at home, it’s the ES divided by the EURJPY.
elliswyatt
on August 19 2010 at 13:06:45
My AUDUSD\SPY chart (the wombat) seems to be running out of sellers. The SPY has been faded all the way down, at 11:05am, 11:52am (intraday low?), 12:18pm, and 12:36pm. The govvy craze has rendered the tape paint signal temporarily out of order, but the eerie quiet feels like a deep breath being taken by some big desks with $3.609 billion burning a hole in their pockets at 6.07 submitted/accepted.
Bob English
on August 19 2010 at 13:37:54
ES/EURJPY also at trendline resistance going back to July 1. Carry is essentially reset as long as 109.1-.2 holds in EURJPY. Below there, and it’s 1.5 big points down to support. Combined w/ today’s POMO (assuming it wasn’t blown on 30′s) and tomorrow’s opex, I’d say the markets a ripe for a tape paint. If current support doesn’t hold in the risk markets, tomorrow will be very ugly and we could see the 1018-25 support band early next week.