17 Aug
Pre-open eMini S&P 500 Morning Report for August 17 2010
Posted in Pre-open Analysis by Bob English at 9:09:26 8 CommentsThe Precise Take – Equity futures up testing multi day resistance
Big Picture Analysis: After an early move down on yesterday’s open to the 50% retracement of the July rally, the ES is up solidly overnight just below major resistance, which extends up to 1091.25. Any venture above this level will need to be quickly reversed or weak shorts will start covering. 50% retracements have been powerful over the summer, so 1097.00 should be watched. However, at that level, there should be enough momentum to get to the ~1105 area. A failure below 1091 indicates sellers have remained firmly in control and another down leg should commence. With no major news for the rest of the week, focus now shifts to…
Bob English
on August 17 2010 at 10:55:17
Just like the good ‘ol days:
elliswyatt
on August 17 2010 at 11:32:03
Dow Jones attributes the move to deal activity, i.e. Pactiv/Rank, Potash/BHP Biliton; and “better data.” Marketwatch echoes DJ. On a related note, this animal has no known enemies in the wild, and is threatened only by illegal trappers, and loss of food due to habitat destruction: http://animals.nationalgeographic.com/reptiles/green-anaconda/
Bob English
on August 17 2010 at 12:28:11
Gotta love those deep thinking, mathematically rigorous science writers:
Bob English
on August 17 2010 at 12:30:56
Correlation desks firmly in charge…
spainconsultant
on August 18 2010 at 05:04:55
Some of what must be very silly questions:
What´s the low half of the chart? What´s the yellow line besides the ES continuous contract?
Furthermore amateur guessing? Boa (reptile)= BOA (Bank of America)= FED? Both can eat almost anything……..
Should we expect similar reaction every day of this new round of Bernanke put? The calendar in the comments of August 11 is the valid one?
Soy un mar de dudas……….
Once again incredible good job in last to days reports Bob……….once again I wasted them because I´m naively-pigheadedly trapped in long term shorts……
tester
on August 18 2010 at 10:05:15
Line is ES divided by EURJPY. It broke its yellow trendline overnight, which in the past has signalled a sidewasy to down market for a few days. Would not trade on this signal alone, but it’s been a good guide.
-Bob
BTW, this is my test account. Comment edit functionality has been added.
elliswyatt
on August 18 2010 at 10:42:56
Spain – nothing so cryptic. Some of yesterday’s POMO-time buying volume accelerated into the price range of Monday’s open – a short squeeze. As it turned out, more like a short cover. Meanwhile the news outlets reported what fund managers needed to tell their retail clients – “Deals! Data!” No mainstream news was reporting, “PDs front-run Ben’s CUSIPS; use POMO $ to ramp stocks, squeeze shorts” – but that’s the headline that describes yesterday. The Primary Dealers knew which Treasury issues the Fed would buy. PD’s sold exactly those to the Fed at a profit. Flush with cash, they put it where it would do them some good – stocks (and, I think, crude futures). It’s a crowded trade, because it’s public. So be careful. The PDs can trade anywhere, anytime, instantly. And they can reverse way faster than mere human fingers. Bob has the better data, but this morning’s (8/18) ES move from 6:30am CDT to about 8am CDT looks a little hinky to me.
[That edit countdown is an excellent feature. Thanks, Bob.]
spainconsultant
on August 18 2010 at 11:47:07
Bob, Ellis, many thanks!!! I´m learning a lot…….. Much interesting than that MBA…………though MBA was a lot cheaper.
Ellis would you mail me? gmail