16 Aug
Pre-open eMini S&P 500 Morning Report for August 16 2010
Posted in Pre-open Analysis by Bob English at 9:16:19 15 CommentsThe Precise Take – ES at lower end of short term trading range
Big Picture Analysis: Below, we see the ES has been in a trading range since late last week bounded by the blue and green value areas, from approximately 1070 to 1090. Acceptance outside this range should kick off the next short term move.
Leaders Analysis: The 10 Year yield has gapped down to the lower end of a support band that runs from 2.62% to 2.65%. While we have been expecting a reversal starting as late as tomorrow, the overnight move suggests there may be fuel for continuation of the down trend. The Euro is weaker only marginally against the Yen, but it is more so against the Swiss Franc, which could be an indication of…
spainconsultant
on August 16 2010 at 09:38:38
1068.50 doesn´t look very relevant right? So thinking in this week and possible reactions, besides that 1065 you mention ˜1060 look as good support?
Looking the Euro/$ chart I see an apparently some 2-3 % move to be made soon……… (1.25 or 1.31 areas)
Very interesting the Heidxxx Omen thing, read some doubts about if was valid the Thursday one and specially if is valid after correction and with the 50 MA clearly down from 200 MA………..also seems that for confirmation in the next weeks markets would need to move up from here……
In my mind there´s an association for the last months (maybe false) Monday premarkets in red: weak week, and lower lows at some point of the week
spainconsultant
on August 16 2010 at 09:42:36
I should look to the market before (or while) I´m written, the 1068.50 wasn´t relevant in fact…….. we´d been much closer of that your 1065.75 you mention, just two ticks
Bob English
on August 16 2010 at 09:59:37
1066.25 is a 50% retracement of the July rally on the day session only chart.
Jeff
on August 16 2010 at 11:53:13
Great call on the bear trap, Bob!!! Looks like your upper end is holding also. Very nice.
I’m bummed my buy order was missed this morning by 4 cents… grrr….
Hope everyone is having a good day trading. It was a long weekend. I’ve been landscaping the house and I’m headed back outside the rest of the day. Enjoy and best wishes all.
spainconsultant
on August 16 2010 at 12:27:00
Thanks Jeff, good luck with this tough job, I bet Bob is going to nail the pic of the day, my shot in the air is a close in the low half of the range area 1070-1074 ……………so much probably is going to be far from that either north or south
I´ll try to do something useful as well as Jeff………… but going to the supermarket and and come back with 75 % of the “to buy” list is hard enough for me
What about Elliswatt? Holidays? Clue Bupkus?
Bob English
on August 16 2010 at 12:49:06
We had a false breakout in the leverage indicator that I posted Friday morning before CPI, but it’s signalling a clearer long now. These signals are usually good for a few days. But, I can’t help but look at these Treas. futures charts and wonder when the reconciliation will take place.
elliswyatt
on August 16 2010 at 13:12:57
Hey spain! I went long Friday on close, but if I told you why, you’d think I was posting comments from a white-padded room. For today I’ll just say Bob’s got the superior data, and his sense about these things is uncanny. (I am keeping a quick trigger finger ready, though, too – high-altitude metaphors for the 10Y stopped being funny somewhere around $26.40)
Bob English
on August 16 2010 at 13:29:00
Ellis, I thought they’d try to chase out you and the other Friday longs on today’s open. Updated leverage chart follows. 30 Yr’s been making up for lost time.
elliswyatt
on August 16 2010 at 14:52:11
My new pet wombat threatened to chew my fingers off if I panicked this morning. I’m watching for Aussie @ 90. Though I wish I had been in the RMN instead. Looks like Champs spiked the BLTs for lunch hour.
Jeff
on August 16 2010 at 15:42:32
Ok, back from landscaping. The wife is gonna love it. She’s on vacation with the kids right now, and has no clue that I’m finally getting the job done. She’s been pestering me for 4 years.
Bob, I have Aug 17 circled on the calendar, but I’m not sure why. Is this the first QE Lite auction date? If so, would you expect a bullish bias? I’m getting a strong signal from one of my systems to go long at the close.
Bob English
on August 16 2010 at 15:56:24
Tues is indeed the resumption of Treas QE. $2 billion or thereabouts. Cannot speculate as to what to expect. We’ll need to look for a pattern over the next few weeks on QE days. Maybe there will be nothing.
spainconsultant
on August 16 2010 at 17:25:53
Ellis, nice you appear!!
Jeff your wife you know the quote: in the back of every great landscaping husband there´s an surprised wife
Tomorrow seems a very good day to peep trading: observe don´t touch
Don´t have clear the Fed move implications anyway, as I understood they will use some housing loan securities extinguishing to buy the treasuries, so I assume the keep the balance high……….but not expanding, not more quantitative injection by now…….. shouldn´t that be neutral (psicological impact apart)?
Good night to everybuddie from a dark, warm but not hot Majorca night
spainconsultant
on August 17 2010 at 07:45:24
ZEW business sentiment came in 14.0 instead of 21 expected, so a plunge, lowest level in some 19 months so markets…….. up of course…….. FED is going to save as all buying some little colored papers trough some electronic grouped small impulses at least for now……..today the mood is up, probably not even bad figures in USA can change this, though there´s a long way till the 4.00 pm in New York sentence for the day……..
Wal Mart kind of close the results windows……. beating of course, one cent or so, though slightly missing revenue (104 bn vs 106) . For what is coming I think Wal Mart won´t be the most affected …….
Would the red-green week alternative continue? Last 3 in a row were green in April (6 in a row) then we have two red in the same april and two green in june, all the rest alternative, swinging……… a tendence on the rise some say
spainconsultant
on August 17 2010 at 08:07:28
I correct myself, there the two green weeks in june were followed by two red ones, so by now last two in a row were red some 7 weeks ago………..
I´d better search for something useful to do
Bob English
on August 17 2010 at 08:11:05
Thanks, SC. Mean reversion’s been the game of the summer.