29 Jun
#eMini Liquidity Alert
Posted in General Analysis & Commentary, Intraday Analysis by Bob English at 10:14:29 7 Comments10:15 am EDT: Market liquidity, as measured by proxy through the ES via a proprietary measure, had improved over the last few weeks, but just deteriorated significantly. The last time it approached these levels from the downside (greater to less liquidity) was May 6. This doesn’t mean there will necessarily be another flash crash, but that it is very easy to push prices around on low volume. Caution is warranted with all positions.
spainconsultant
on June 29 2010 at 11:16:19
Thanks for this info, and great call in premarket report!!
Is the worst over for today? I reformulate, being you compelled to ask to get your dinner and assuming you´re not on died, you bet for a close above the 1040 or below?
Bob English
on June 29 2010 at 11:23:38
You know my thoughts on a quadruple bottom here (although I thought the same about a triple!). As Bespoke Investment Group pointed out on May 4, when equities are down >2% at 11:00 am, as they are today, there is a very good chance of a second down leg in the afternoon.
spainconsultant
on June 29 2010 at 11:35:52
Yes I thought the same but just watching for a contrarian opinion or simple a qualified one. Anyway besides today scenery aparent settled for new year lows in the coming days……
For the ones looking for a turned to green today, acording to a european blog, Bespoke publish a study for big falls in consumer confidence days, pointing to a pattern like big fall in first hour, stabilitation and big move up after 2.00 pm……. but I think the situation is far more than consumir confidence falling here.
Today in Spain is San Pedro San Pablo y todos los santos (Saint Peter San Paul and all saints) so happy day for Pauls, Peters, and everybody
elliswyatt
on June 29 2010 at 11:37:31
It looks like a buyers’ strike. Obviously my strangle went to the short side. The Halloween low was around 1027. Do you dare fade the bounce levels around 1017, Bob?
Bob English
on June 29 2010 at 12:34:06
Something about “by the hair on my chinny chin chin” comes to mind.
@spainconsultant: Missed that BIG report, but yes, there are bigger factors at work.
@elliswyatt: Maybe, as I’m entertaining the possibility of a ~1015 to ~1215 range into the end of year. Leaders are saying we could easily get into triple digits, so we’ll have to see if/when we get to next lower target.
spainconsultant
on June 29 2010 at 14:49:21
Didn´t get the piggy resemblance (I google the chin chin phrase)…….. which of the houses would this be? or nothing to do with the houses as resistance…….
1015 low as low for the year? That´s a surprise to me. Well you are the master here for sure, but with the economic data and things I´m reading worldwide I even wouldn´t bet the 915 holds…..
Bob English
on June 29 2010 at 14:52:46
Just one of many possibilities. It would definitely have surprise factor.
House of cards.