11:38 am EDT:  On its initial decline, the ES stopped short about two points of the daily S1′s, which were in the lower end of the projected range.  Concurrently, though, in the cash equity indexes, the corresponding levels were respected very closely (see below).  The ES has now rallied nearly to the upper end of the projected range, which is 1071.00 to 1072.50.  The Dollar is strong and the EuroYen weak, but US equities are rallying in the face of this.  Accordingly, there is still a possibility of a run to at least 1079.00, with the probability increasing the longer the ES remains in the upper range.

The Precise Take – Equity futures again quiet overnight ahead of Retail Sales tomorrow

Leaders Analysis:  The leaders are not saying much as they are mostly in yesterday’s range, except for 30 year T-Bond futures, which have had a bearish week and are posting  a nominal new low for the week overnight.  They are, however, at strong support.  All in all, the leaders are equities neutral

Medium Term Analysis:  Nothing new to add from the previous days’ commentary.  Retail sales could be a market mover tomorrow if it’s not within consensus.  After that, nothing major until CPI the following Friday.

Trading Today:  Similar setup to yesterday, with the ES oscillating around VWAP overnight and looking like it will open around the day’s value area.  The upper end of the projected range contains the daily R1’s and yesterday’s high, from 1071.00 to 1072.50.  The lower end contains yesterday’s low and the daily S1’s, from 1055.50 to 1056.25.  There is very little resistance above 1072.50, up to day-session-only R2 at 1079.00, so this would be a good day for the bulls to attempt…

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