1 Feb
#eMini Trading Levels & Leaders
Posted in Intraday Analysis by Bob English at 12:12:23 2 Comments11:12 am EDT: A relatively quiet day so far, even with some news at 10:00 am. Though the first hour was positive, the ES got stuck one point under Friday’s midday high of 1084.50. As long as the daily pivots hold at 1076.25 to 1076.75, there is a chance to rally to the upper end of the projected range of 1085.75 to 1087.00. If there is a close above 1087.00, per the morning report, we we’ll get a multiday rally. If 1087.00 does not hold, a gap fill is likely and, at that point, we are not as confident about the lower end of the projected range holding (1066.00 to 1070.50).
The EuroYen is rallying strongly today and, though the USD is not doing much, T-Bonds are down after rejecting last week’s high. This could be the beginning of the end of the downturn, but we’ll need to see how the leaders and the ES close today, per above.
Jeff
on February 1 2010 at 13:25:13
Thanks for the update. Quick question: What if we remain below the upper end of the range but above the daily pivot…would a gap fill still be expected at some point in the near future? In other words, what do you think happens if we don’t reach 1087 today?
Bob English
on February 1 2010 at 13:53:31
There is not a professional gap that would appear on the daily, so after today the gap I mentioned disappears. In general, the tendency of non-professional (daily) gaps to get filled are greatest in the opening 30 minutes and diminish thereafter. Given the bearish nature of the ES recently, esp. in the afternoon, I rate it as still possible. If 1087 isn’t hit today, good chance of testing or breaking Friday’s low.