1:40 pm EDT:  We’re back to find a range day indeed, but very small so far.  However, there are some things worth noting.  First, the early break of yesterday’s high by two ticks and quick 2.25 point retracement was a clue as to a potential bull trap.  Then, the subsequent retracement to 1140.00 was a perfect 76.4% retracement of the premarket low to the day session high.  This less-used fib level is a good clue as to subsequent consolidation in the ES, and equity indexes in general.  The target on the subsequent bounce is the 76.4% retracement of the prior leg, which in this case was 1144.50 (hit as we write this).

The Precise Take – ES flat on Retail Sales ahead of CPI and opex Friday

Leaders Analysis:   30 Year T-Bond futures have not been able to capitalize on Tuesday’s breakout, but have a good chance to rally on a tepid to cold CPI tomorrow.  Also, the 30 Year auction is today, but the auctions this week haven’t been producing much volatility.  The EuroYen is rangebound and not offering much guidance, and the US Dollar is up marginally from yesterday.  All in all, the leaders are equities neutral.

Medium Term Analysis:  Not much to add from yesterday’s commentary, except that the ES had its biggest day-session range since December 4 and intraday volatility is returning as expected. 

Trading Today:  As we write, retail sales for December came in below expectations and jobless claims came in at the upper end of expectations, which should both be bearish for equities.  However, the ES has barely budged, so the bulls appear to remain in control.  If the ES can break above yesterday’s high of 1145.25, there is a good chance of hitting…

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