12:13 pm EDT:  The ES has traded to below the projected range.  Accordingly, longs are aggressive.  However, there are few things that would support a long up to at least the ~1122 level.  (1) Trendline support on the combined session ES chart from Dec 18 to Dec 30 is holding.  (2) The ES took out yesterday’s day-session low by three ticks and got a buying spurt, which is a sign of a potential bear trap.  Were we to be long, we would not hold below the current low of 1117.25, however.

The Precise Take – ES testing highs on last trading day of 2009

Leaders Analysis:   Yesterday, the EuroYen suggested that global appetite for risk remained strong and, indeed, equities are up again near highs.  If the EuroYen closes above its 200 day moving average where it is trading now, there should be continuation of the move in the new year.

Medium Term Analysis:  Bullish seasonality should help equities early next week, when traders will be positioning ahead of Friday’s Employment Situation. 

Trading Today:  As has been the case recently, we don’t expect both sides of the projected range to be fulfilled.  Once one end has been reached, there may be at best a move back to…

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