29 Dec
Pre-open eMini S&P 500 Morning Report for December 29, 2009
Posted in Pre-open Analysis by Bob English at 9:46:48 4 CommentsThe Precise Take – ES up again overnight
Leaders Analysis: Overnight, the 13 Week T-Bill rate doubled, to 0.105%. This could merely be part of end-of-year window dressing, with institutions creating demand for cash and short duration Treasuries. So, we’ll need to wait until the new year to confirm before coming to any broader conclusions. The 30 Year opened flat relative to yesterday but is still testing the June highs. This is significant with two more important auctions on deck this week. The US Dollar is down again overnight and, notably, the EuroYen has now advanced to its 50 day moving average resistance, with the 200 day just above. It will be important to watch how it reacts to this resistance zone.
Medium Term Analysis: The holiday pattern has held once again, with a small range during the day session and new highs overnight. How long can this continue? It would be reasonable to speculate at least until the end of the year, Thursday. However, with some of the leaders at important inflection points, it could occur sooner. A major selloff is unlikely, but we should be prepared for the possibility that traders will be quick to book profits on this gift rally.
Trading Today: Yesterday, we watched with interest as the 1126.25 50% retracement of the entire down move from the Oct 07 high was respected to the tick. It was, however, blown out overnight, so it is reasonable to assume…
Pre-open eMini SP 500 Morning Report 12.29.09 | Wall St. Cheat Sheet
on December 29 2009 at 09:57:46
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on December 29 2009 at 11:18:56
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sdg
on December 29 2009 at 16:25:40
meaning of fade … (in dice throwing) to make a wager against
In the pre-open report you said:
The upper end of the projected range is 1129.75 (day-session-only R2). Notably, there
is strong resistance above from weekly R1 and combined session R2 (1130.75 to 1131.00), from
which we would consider fading short. We would not fade long below 1122.00
I interpret the above statement as follows:
1. do not short above 1130.75 to 1131
2. buying below 1122 is OK. … then in the intraday analysis you said no longs below 1122.
In the pre-open analysis did you mean do not fade shorts below 1122.
I apologize for being confused but I am interpreting your report based on the dictionary definition of fade. Thanks Bob.
Bob English
on December 29 2009 at 17:24:32
The intention was always “no longs below 1122″. If the ES is moving down (such as below 1122), to fade would be to move in the opposite direction by going long, which was something we did not want to do below 1122. We’ll try to be more clear in the future and avoid the term “fade”.