10:25 am EDT:  The ES sold off sharply on the open down through the overnight low to combined session daily S2 and the weekly pivot at 1095.25 (actual low of 1095.00).  Though this support level is below where we were willing to entertain longs per the morning report, the strong reaction off of it suggests there is still support for this rally.  Perhaps a little fear is needed ahead of the 5 Year auction at 1:00 pm.  VWAP (approx 1101.50 now) is providing resistance.  If the ES trades above it and it becomes support, we’re willing to look for longs again, preferably after 1:00 pm (remember too FOMC Minutes at 2:00 pm).  Shorts appear dangerous as long as 1095.00 holds.

The Precise Take – ES at highs as news pace accelerates ahead of Thanksgiving

Leaders Analysis:  30 Year T-Bonds and 10 Year T-Notes reversed upwards yesterday on a strong 2 Year auction.  The EuroYen reversed down after coming up against moving average resistance, and the US Dollar found support at the 75 level.  No equities bearish signal yet, but they are close once again as they were last Friday.  There is a 5 Year auction today and a 7 Year auction tomorrow, that could reverse any moves long term Treasuries make.

Medium Term Analysis:    There are 7 major reports before the markets close tomorrow, so we expect some volatility.  Because the ES is near highs, it would only take one or two good numbers off a report to push through highs and have a relatively frictionless ride up to the next target of 1024.00 to 1126.25.  Longs do not want to close the week with a double top structure in place because equities tend to selloff the week after Thanksgiving.

Trading Today:  Though the ES retraced a bit farther than we would have liked yesterday afternoon, it found support overnight near day-session-only S-1 (actual low 1099.00).  Overnight resistance has been weekly R1 in confluence with the 61.8% retracement from yesterday’s high at 1107.00  We will look for longs today down to…

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