12:55 pm EDT:  Technical problems have just been fixed. 

Recap: equities drop on weak Consumer Sentiment, but US Dollar tanks on the same news, which lifts equities.  It is by this logic that we find the ES at 1100 after eight short months.  So far, a nice range day with sellers largely absent as evidenced by market internals.  We would look to buy a pullback to the 1090 to 1092 area as longs will want to keep the party going and close over the daily pivot.  Given the strong internals, it’s possible the ES simply drifts higher into the close.  We would be surprised to see a material downside reversal, but will be on the lookout for a shift in internals as it is Friday afternoon.

The Precise Take – ES attempts to hold on at highs ahead of Retail Sales Monday

Leaders Analysis:  We may sound like a broken record, but 30 Year T-Bonds are still on the verge of a breakout.  The fact that it has not yet occurred may portend weakness; however, their recovery yesterday after the tepid 30 Year auction was impressive.  The EuroYen finally broke to the downside after consolidating for several days, which is equities bearish.  If T-Bonds do break to the upside today, we have likely seen the equities high until the EuroYen trades down to its 200 day moving average again.

Medium Term Analysis:  Two consecutive closes under the daily pivot has been the death knell for the last three rallies, so longs will want to close above today’s pivot at 1090.25, especially ahead of Monday’s Retail Sales report at 8:30 am.  We wrote earlier in the week that if equities looked weak Friday (today), shorts would start piling in ahead of next week’s news calendar (also options expiration).  Accordingly, it’s likely do or die for the rally today.

Trading Today:  Yesterday’s strong close in light of the day’s losses allowed an overnight run to closing VWAP (actual overnight high of 1092.00).  The daily pivot at 1090.25 up to 1092.00 also includes yesterday’s market profile point of control and serves as a key area to watch today.  As we wrote above, longs want to close above the pivot.  The 8:30 am reports have not moved the markets much, so Consumer Sentiment will likely be the catalyst today.  With price near both yesterday’s settlement and the daily pivots, we…

Continue reading here.