12:09 pm EDT:  Technical problems have prevented an earlier update.

Leaders: 30 Yr T-Bond electronic futures have taken advantage of the bond holiday and have broken to the upside by one big point–not yet through critical trend channel resistance–but on the verge.  If they break through tomorrow, the S&P will likely correct a bit until the 30 Yr is done with its advance.

ES:  After exceeding the first buy zone by three ticks to the downside (4 is our usual stop), the ES made new nominal highs to 1103.25 and has since retreated to the second buy zone, between 1089.75 to 1092.00 (actual low 1091.50).  We are still willing to buy on a retest or slight break of 1091.50, but will not hold a tick below 1089.75.

The Precise Take – ES breaks to new highs ahead of Veteran’s Day

Leaders Analysis:  We have been closely monitoring 30 Yr Treasury Bonds and the EuroYen forex cross, but they still have not moved materially.  The 30 Yr looks poised to break to the upside after consolidating since last Wednesday at support.  Whenever it has done so in the past in this rally, equities have corrected in turn, so we will continue to closely monitor it.  Aside from that, the US Dollar is down overnight, gold is up, and otherwise confirming the new highs in the ES.

Medium Term Update:  The second of each month appears to be the time to buy the S&P 500, as doing so each of the last three months (including November) would have got you in on the interim low and led to new highs.  The time to sell has been the 20-23, so we’ll keep that in mind if equities continue to surge over the next week.  Today is US Veteran’s Day with no scheduled news until tomorrow.  When traders return, they will find the highs taken out ahead of the 8:30 am Jobless Report, which aids the longs.

Trading Today:  Because of the US holiday, we expect either a low range day like yesterday, or a frictionless push up to the daily R3’s at 1109.50.  Above that, and we have no resistance until the 50% retracement of the entire down move from the Oct 07 highs at 1126.25.  We would be early buyers at…

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