The Precise Take – It’s all about the jobs, short term

Leaders Analysis:  The 30 Year looks weak while it’s at support, and it could easily break three big points to the August low.  Gold hit the upper boundary of its upward sloping trend channel yesterday and has backed off a bit.  The US Dollar was down materially yesterday, having retraced the gains made since the previous Tuesday.  Unfortunately for equities, none of this has been able to ignite them.

Medium Term Update:  After the negative reaction to yesterday’s FOMC Announcement, the only thing remaining to commence an equities rally is a positive Employment Situation report tomorrow–not just bullish, but an actual positive number indicating gains in jobs instead of losses.  We see this as a possibility only because the headline number is so volatile and potentially skewed because of the birth/death adjustment.  Next week, the 10 and 30 Year Treasury auctions will dominate until Friday’s Int’l Trade and Consumer Sentiment reports.  There are a lot of interesting press releases emanating from the Washington bureaucracies, so unscheduled news could also play a factor.

Trading Today:  As we write, Jobless Claims and Productivity at 8:30 am have given the ES a boost.  We prefer to attempt to get short today by…

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