The Precise Take – ES climbs to critical resistance overnight ahead of FOMC Announcement

Leaders Analysis:  All leaders are equities bullish.

FOMC Analysis & Time Profile:  Below illustrates the net points (and other statistics) for each 15 minute period on FOMC days going back to the beginning of easing in Sep 2007 (n = 17).  There is a heavy statistical bias for a gap open (as indicated by the large black bar for the opening 15 minutes, which includes gap points), with a trailing bullish edge until about 2:00 pm.  Upon the announcement at 2:15 pm, the first 15 minutes tends to be very volatile, there is then a bullish edge until 3:00 pm, with a bearish edge into the close.  Keep in mind these are statistical biases only.  For the prior FOMC announcement date on Sep 23, equities reversed sharply at 2:30 pm and closed down for the day.

Trading Today:  As we write, the ES has advanced to test Monday’s high (actual overnight high 1049.75) between the monthly and weekly pivots, which today contains combined session daily R1 and day-session-only R2 and a long term point of control.  This area, which spans 1047.75 to 1050.75 is key resistance to watch early.  We prefer to be early buyers down to…

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