The Precise Take – ES higher overnight into housing stats week

Leaders Analysis:   No moves to speak of, except crude inches to new yearly highs.  30 Year T-Bond futures, the EuroYen and the US Dollar are mostly consolidating.

Medium Term Analysis:  As we wrote Friday, the focus this week is on housing data, which is not expected to disappoint.  PPI tomorrow could weigh a bit on equities the way Chicago PMI and Durable Goods did a few weeks prior, and it is concurrent with Housing Starts, so that will be a critical time for the markets if they are at major support or resistance.  Next week will be a bit tougher for equities in terms of news, so longs will want to push to new highs while the going is good, and 1126.25 is a reasonable target this week.  A close in the ES below last week’s low of 1077.50 puts the rally in jeopardy.

Trading Today:  After taking out Friday’s low by a few points early overnight (low 1076.25), the ES traded sharply higher (1089.50).  There is a large support area with pivot, Fibonacci and market profile support that spans 1080.25 to 1085.00.  The ideal early long is from 1083.50 (closing VWAP) to 1085.00 (combined session daily pivot); however, we’re willing to consider longs all the way down to the…

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