10:33 am EDT:  The buying and selling surges are increasing based on NYSE advancing and declining volume, so we could have a breakout of the small range by early afternoon.  At the same time, other market internals suggest a range day, so it may be a false breakout.  Accordingly, we will only fade the expected range if $TICK stays under 900 (on an up move) or over -900 (on a down move).  Buy zone is 1055.50 to 1058.00.  Sell zone is 1068.50 to 1069.50.

Leaders:  EuroYen broke through 132 and a close above will pave the way for further equities gains next week.  T-Bonds also down nicely as we would expect.

The Precise Take – ES maintaining highs ahead of long weekend

Leaders Analysis:   Importantly, the leaders have come back into alignment, with 30 Year T-Bonds selling off after yesterday’s less than stellar 30 Year auction (yields broke up through resistance) and with the EuroYen advancing overnight (which we would still like to see break above the 132 level.

Medium Term Analysis:  With most US traders taking Monday off for Columbus day and Canadians celebrating Thanksgiving, longs would ideally push the S&P 500 to new highs today to easily allow the trend to continue next week.  However, the ES does not look particular strong overnight, having failed at yesterday’s high of 1067.25.  This does not alter our medium term bullish outlook, but the ES may head down to the giant potential reversal area we see from 1051.25 to 1055.50, which contains pivot, market profile, Fibonacci and other support.  A close below 1050.00 today puts the rally into question. 

Trading Today:  If the ES opens down (likely), we would be early buyers at the daily S1’s (1055.50 and 1058.00.  The daily pivot/gap area  from 1061.50 to 1063.75 also contains yesterday’s point of control and long term point of control, and should serve as early resistance (we would consider a short here).  If the ES can break above this area, it should at least test the 1067.25 high.  For a range day, we would expect…

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