The Precise Take – ES maintaining strength as quarter ends

Leaders Analysis:   The USD finally broke again overnight and gold is up proportionately, back over 1000.  30 Year T-Bond futures are still hanging around highs, which equity longs will want to see rejected to allow an easy pass to new highs.  If 122 is materially broken to the upside in T-Bonds, there will likely be significant short covering that will draw money into Treasuries and compete more seriously with stocks. 

Medium Term Analysis:  Tomorrow (Thursday) is a monster news day, with a good potential for disappointment in one or more of the four major market moving reports.  It may take a fancifully rosy Employment Situation report on Friday to boost equities to new highs.  If the current value area is rejected and the ES returns to the lower value area centered around 1042.50, we would expect it to be supported at least into Friday’s Employment report.

Trading Today:  As we write, yesterday’s market profile point of control of 1056.00 served as support after a slightly negative ADP Employment Report and Q2 GDP was subsequently revised to be less negative, which has given the ES a boost.  However, the 1063.00 market profile point of control is still being rejected.  Longs need to…

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