10:58 am EDT:  The ES pierced our fade long area by 1.5 points (low 1013.25), but has managed to retrace to an area where we are willing to short–1019.00 to 1021.00.  Shorts will not want to see the 1023.25 overnight swing high violated.  We would avoid looking for longs above there, though, as there is much resistance up to the 1031.00 level.  For a down trend day, we would like to have seen a new low by now, so we would tighten stops on shorts if the lows are again tested.

The Precise Take – ES trading in lower end of last week’s range

General Analysis:  With all our leaders at support or resistance and consolidating, we are expecting an extended move to begin soon (likely this week), perhaps with Friday’s Employment Situation report being the final sendoff.

Trading Today:  While we aren’t prepared to sound the alarm bells just yet, the ES is trading lower overnight, having breached daily S1 (low 1019.25).  Without any major news, a week Chicago PMI at 9:45 am could lead to a larger selloff.  We are willing to fade short a move into the 1027.00 to 1030.50 area, and become intraday bullish above 1030.50.  The ES is currently in our intraday bearish area from 1022.00 downwards, though we would fade long the 1014.75 to 1015.25 area that contains last week’s low and weekly S1.  Below that, and…

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