Short term #eMini / Long term #gold

11:27 am EDT:  The ES has not looked back as it has headed all the way past day-session-only R3 and weekly R1.  Globex daily R3 at 995.75 is all that remains until confluence of weekly R2 and the old Nov 5 08 high at 1008.50 to 1008.75.  Again, we’re not fading short at these levels, but would wait for a pullback to 988 for new longs as we’re unlikely to post meaningful gains for a while.  We only get intraday bearish below 982 now.   

Today’s POMO auction, for what it’s worth (though we stipulated by itself it would not give a bullish edge) was for $6.5 B, larger than yesterday’s $3 B.  Assuming equities can hold on to their gains through the 7 Year auction at 1:00 pm, we should get additional gains into the close because of momentum alone.

Longer term:  Below is a gold chart that shows the consolidating wedge developing off 61.8% retracements (marked 1, 2, 3 and 4?).  The last would see a rise to about 947 should it occur, then reversal down again.  In this highly technical and standout pattern, a breakout will be watched closely as a signal to the direction of the markets and economy.  To the upside (bullish for equities), gold has the potential to finally move beyond the 1,000 level.  To the downside (bearish for equities), we see 800 as a target.

Gold 7-30-09

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