10:10 am EDT:  The 10 year hit is 50% retracement from June lows and the 30 year its 61.8% earlier this morning.  A break signals a likely retest of lows and much higher yields.  If the Fed is to defend long term interest rates from rising, it will need to do so over the coming few days.  Any intervention by the Fed would require a return to lower prices in equities and would at the least put a damper on the prospect of material new highs.

In the ES, 944.75 (old June closing highs) was the level to watch and has been breached only immaterially (945.50 high), with the 10:00 am Leading Indicators report retesting the level and now failing.  We will now likely retest at least the 935 to 937 value area and would not be surprised to see the high of the day in.

Update 10:14 am:  Would add to the above, that if we do break to new highs, we’re not top pickers as there will likely be too much momentum.