10:24 EDT:  NYSE advance:decline ratio is most negative since March 30, 2009.  That markets are trending on the last day before a 3 day weekend is very bearish, but we expect declines to slow, perhaps grinding down to 893 at the lowest.  30 Yr T-Bonds are testing the 61.8% level they hit Monday and, should they exceed to the upside, Bernanke could finally get the beginning of the short covering rally in Treasuries.  Should the ES get over 901.50 with no new low below 897.00, longs can test the waters on a retracement, but don’t expect much of a reversal.  There have been no major retracements for shorts to enter on, so while shorts can enter at 901, we expect their gains will be limited too and would hold out for the 905 to 909 area, not entering above there.  Likely, the volatility for the day has already occurred.

The Precise Take – Employment Situation disappoints into 3 day weekend

As we write the headline number of -467 K jobs is a greater loss than the range of expectations had predicted, though the 9.5% unemployment rate was not as bad as the range  up to 9.7% had predicted.  The markets will need to recover early and, barring some unforeseen announcement, we believe an afternoon recovery (should  it have not already happened in the morning) will not occur.  Trading desks, largely empty now, will be abandoned after 11:30 am.  Markets need to close over yesterday’s 919.25 close (also the 50% retracement of the June 5 contract high and June 23 low) for shorts to become nervous.  The ES is finding support now at 905.25 to 906.00 Fib confluence and longs will be in jeopardy if 901.00 does not hold.  If longs can push above…

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