30
Jun
Posted in Post-close Analysis by Bob English |
The higher value area established yesterday around 921.75 was rejected early after a failure at key R1/Fib resistance of 926.25 to 927.75 from this morning’s report (high of 926.25), but the lower value area centered around the 913.00 point of control has held. Expect low volatility perhaps until the 7:30 and 8:15 employment-related reports tomorrow that people will be looking to ahead of Thursday’s big employment report. Predicted maximum high and low are 921.75 and 909.50, respectively. Support/resistance is marked below.
Incidentally, we’re opening up just shy of July’s monthly pivot of 917.50 after failing to close all week (on a 60 min chart) above June’s R1 of 924.25.
30
Jun
Posted in Intraday Analysis by Bob English |
The much weaker than expected Consumer Confidence has sent markets much lower, taking out yesterday’s 911.50 swing low and hitting Globex S1 at 911.00. Longs still need to defend 908.00 then 904.00 to 905.00, which is critical support. Treasuries are down too as there seems to be a general exodous from the markets, possibly due to closing out Q2 positions. Shorts can enter from 914.50 to 915.50, or wait for 918.75.
30
Jun
Posted in Pre-open Analysis by Bob English |
The Precise Take – Low volume start to truncated, report-laden week—Q2 09 ends today
Despite some key breakouts in markets we have been watching (Dow above 200 day MA again; KBW bank index and XLF financial ETF break above resistance; ES entering key gap area), the markets have not been able to generate follow through (the small and mid caps relative to the S&P 500 overall charted yesterday did not break out of resistance). Perhaps everyone is waiting for the quarter to end today or for any of the plethora of reports coming down the pike into the three day weekend. With actual human traders on vacation or gearing down, program trading could produce some violent swings, especially on Thursday’s Employment Situation report at 8:30 am (often a reversal day or close to a reversal day). Today, Case-Shiller Home Price index at 9:00 am (expected bearish) should set the tone into the open, but Consumer Confidence could…
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