5:12 pm EDT:  We noted in the morning report that the price had reached last Friday’s weak market profile point of control within a tick (955.00 high) and, in the 10:28 am update, posted the 30 minute support and resistance chart update with a green vertical line from the overnight high to the 941.25 point of control with an identical one drawn from 941.25 downwards.  The below 10 minute chart has these same lines and you can see how the low of the day was within half a point of the projection (927.00 low).  By the close, the ES retraced to within a tick of the 941.25 POC, thus completing a perfect 360 degree sinusoidal oscillation today.  The bottom line is 941.25 is the number to watch tomorrow, and we note that we have still not closed above the Jan 6 2009 high of 942.75.

Overnight, if the ES can break above 941.25, it will likely be contained by today’s minor point of control at 950.00 in confluence with day-session-only R1 at 951.50.  If this does not contain price, the confluence of Globex R1, today’s high and weak POC from 954.50 to 955.25 should.  To the downside, long term and today’s point of control confluence are at932.00 to 932.75, with 6 levels of confluence between 925.75 to 928.00.

Update on earlier post:  We mistakenly reported that the 50 day moving average had crossed over the 200 in the ES, SPY and cash S&P 500, when it was only the 20 day that had done so.  Though the 20 closed over the 200, this is not as strong a signal as the 50 doing so.

The ES is trying to hold on to the lower end of the gap/pivot area at 939.50, which is yesterday’s settlement.  We did not get the expected short covering in the first hour of trading, but could if this level holds into the afternoon.  So far, we have seen a second rejection of pre-market strength into the 955-957 (first being last Friday) . Also, the NYSE advance:decline ratio, which gapped up strongly to nearly 5.0, has now decisively broken its support trendline and is in negative territory, also similar to last Friday.

Updated support/resistance levels are below.

For the ES futures, SPY S&P ETF and the cash S&P 500, the 20 day moving average has crossed above the 200 day moving average on the open.  Should it close in this state, we could see a wave of buying into tomorrow’s open.  The 20 last crossed under the 200 on Nov 23 2007.

Internals opened up strong as expected, and we are testing the first support area identified in this morning’s report.

UPDATE:  The above has been corrected to state that it is the 20 day MA that has crossed over the 200, not the 50 as originally reported.  The 20/200 is not as significant as the 50/200 cross.

Click here.