1:41 pm EDT:  We never got the bullish signs we were looking for in the last update, so we’re still bearish, though 924.75 (just hit as we write) is a 50% long from last Friday’s low.   Shorts will be entering from 928.75 up to VWAP at ~932.

Of interest today is the upwards reversal in the US Dollar index futures (trade weighted against a basket of currencies) and the downward reversal in Gold.  Neither has helped the equities, but long term yields are marginally down.  The Dollar has now been temporarily spared a breach of its critical 61.8% support line from last year’s lows to this year’s highs, which would only accelerate the pace of devaluation.  The trend, however, is still clearly down and it will be interesting to see if this is merely a one off event.  The weekly chart is below.

100% of the 7 days since the beginning of the March rally that have seen -4.0 or less on open of the NYSE advance:decline ratio have seen lower lows within 3 days.  2 of those only saw those further lows the same day (late in the day) from which the market subsequently rallied overnight.  Bottom line is we don’t recommend picking bottoms today unless and until we see strength on the short term charts in the form of TICK readings > 800, 50% retracement of up moves being respected, VWAP trending up, etc.

Click here.