5:14 pm EDT:  No major pullbacks until about 3:20 pm, when the market retraced to VWAP and tested highs again, before closing at VWAP (~939), which is also by tomorrow’s day-session-only pivot (938.50).  ES now trading at 938.75 as we write.

Overnight, we expect today’s primary point of control at 941.25 to provide resistance.  Above, there is a countertrend short at 945.50, then day session highs at 947.25, which also correspond with tomorrow’s day-session-only R1 (947.75).   To the downside, we expect 930.75 (today’s secondary POC) to 931.75 (50% retracement of day’s move) to provide greatest support, though 924.25 (minor POC) to 924.75 (50% from Friday’s lows) will also offer support.

1:10 pm EDT:  The 1:00 pm candle closed down on strong volume with a new low Tick of -867, the first below -350.   Longs may want to hold out for the VWAP/50% area of 836 to 837 before attempting to reenter.  The market has stayed above the 1st standard deviation of VWAP since the 10:00 am reports, and could be ready for a larger retracement to that area if 841.25 does not hold.  Shorts can enter 843.00 stopping 845.00 with 837.00 as target.

11:47 am EDT:  ISM Manufacturing at upper range of consensus and better than expected Construction Spending at 10:00 am EDT have helped propel the market higher, and it now rests at the 942.75 resistance area noted in the morning report (943.00 is the day’s high).  We are not seeing any weakness yet, but expect the market to pause before attempting to break through highs in the afternoon.  The 936 area is a buy where we expect new longs to enter at a 50% retracement and VWAP.   Shorts could try that as a target, but strength warrants a tight stop just above morning highs.  Below that, longs can also enter from 930.  Internals are strong as expected with no low Tick less than 350.

Jun 09 Gold hit 988 earlier, but has retreated to about 975.

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