Shorts and longs have each entered in kind within 1 point of the levels identified in our last post, however, we have not gotten the expect[ed] breakout and are seeing low volume with new high and low Tick readings unable to generate new highs or lows in price.  Whether the session ends with a fizzle or a pop is anyone’s guess now.

The 901.50 CT long is cancelled as it is too close to the 902.75 morning low and selling could pick up if it is exceeded.  The ES has consolidated and stayed below VWAP most of mid-day and we should see movement pick up by 2:00 pm EDT.   Shorts will likely fade a rally at 911.00,  and don’t want to see the morning high of 912.25 get exceeded.   Longs will enter at 904.25 and don’t want to see the morning low exceeded.    Trading the range breakout could be dangerous to the downside as there is a lot of support around 900 and it is probably best to wait for pullbacks to see if the 50% retracements from the breakout level are respected.  915.75 is still the number to beat for longs.

Chicago PMI worse than expected at 8:45 am dragged the market down.  Consumer Sentiment at 9:55 am better than expected has helped establish support at the 50% retracement at 902.50 from yesterday’s afternoon swing low at 894.00.  Internals opened bullish, but reversed after failing to take out Globex highs and into the PMI report.  Longs want to get above the 61.8% retracement from Globex highs to morning low at 909.25.  As we write, shorts have sold off the 50% retracement at 908.00 (also VWAP) from this same range.

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