The Precise Take – ES down after GDP disappoints

Big Picture Analysis: The ES continues to trade in its well defined trend channel, but has shown some weakness on GDP this morning.  Next week, ISM and the monthly Employment Situation will be in focus.  Today, Consumer Sentiment at 9:55 am EST could be a market mover.

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The Precise Take – Consolidating gains

Big Picture Analysis: Yesterday, the ES spent most of the day slowly making up the territory  lost overnight.  After the bell, an Apple earnings beat facilitated a run to 1216.50 to test Monday’s high, but the markets gave back some in European trading.  Focus now shifts to the Fed, with the FOMC Announcement at 12:30 pm EST and the Chairman’s press conference at 2:15 pm.  While this format is still relatively new, we’ve noticed that  trading tends to be erratic until after the press conference is over, which is about 3:00 pm.  Other potential market movers today are Pending Home Sales Index at 10:00 am, the EIA Petroleum Stats at 10:30 am.  While not usually a market mover, we note that the 5 Year Note Auction has been moved up to 11:30 am from its normal 1:00 pm slot.  Looking ahead, we have Durable Goods tomorrow and GDP Friday.  It looks like Europe has taken a back seat for now, but a choice headline could still provide an opportunity for a shakeout of weak longs.

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The Precise Take – FOMC meeting commences

Big Picture Analysis: With only a 2 Year Note Auction today at 1:00 pm EST, we might expect a quiet day ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC Announcement, barring the slight possibility of headline risk out of Europe.

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The Precise Take – Markets quiet ahead of EZ meeting

Big Picture Analysis: Friday was another calm day, with the ES rallying in the final minutes to close at a nominal new high.  Overnight, traders pushed to 1314.00 ahead of a meeting of the Eurozone’s 17 finance ministers, which commenced at 8:30 am EST this morning.  There’s no scheduled news today in the US, and while European headline risk is on the table, we don’t expect anything too big.  Tomorrow, all 27 EU finance ministers meet and the FOMC meeting commences, with the announcement and Bernanke press conference on Wednesday.  Expectations are for low for any material changes in policy other than the already-announced disclosure of each FOMC voting member’s expected path for the Fed Funds target.  A short term correction would be healthy for the markets at this point, but we could continue to see the US indexes continue to climb their respective walls of worry.

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The Precise Take – Nothing new

Big Picture Analysis: Yesterday ended up another low range day, with a paltry six handles covered overnight.  It seems complacency has set in, and headline risk has all but evaporated for the time being.  This can change on a dime, but bulls retain the short and intermediate term edge until proven otherwise.  Seasonality on opex favors the bears early and bulls late.  Existing Home Sales is released at 10:00 am EST, but is unlikely to be a market mover unless far out of consensus.  Next week’s FOMC Announcement on Wednesday will come into focus Monday, as earnings season continues.

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The Precise Take – Higher highs

Big Picture Analysis: The ES continues to tack on gains, reaching new highs yesterday into the close and again overnight to 1309.25.  The three reports at 8:30 am EST this morning did not move the markets much (CPI was flat and Jobless Claims a bit better than consensus), but we still have the Philly Fed Survey at 10:00 am, which can be a big market mover.  With options expiration tomorrow, we will be on alert for a spike high high on the news today and subsequent reversal that might mark a short term top.  Barring that, we might expect the upward drift to continue.

Explanation of 60 minute chart: We have reintroduced some elements into the 60 minute chart, such as the projected range, which long time readers will recognize from the 30 minute chart we used to publish prior to August, 2011.   The reason we had stopped was the expansion of daily range and headline driven market made the projections too arbitrary and not useful.  Should the bear market reassert, we may revert once again, but for now, below is how to read the chart.  (In progress is a way to show more granularity on the right edge price axis.)

The thin horizontal boxes are support and resistance areas of varying strength.  The yellow vertical box to the right is the projected range.  Support and resistance areas that fall at or within its boundaries are ripe for countertrend plays.  The gray boxes are neutral zones, where we would still consider countertrend plays, but with a bit more caution.  The blue and red vertical boxes mark the areas above and below which the market could easily get away from us and countertrend plays are much more risky.  It’s trend days that tend to move only in one direction, closing at the extreme, that tend to punish day traders the most (and keep in mind that down moves are often much more quicker than up moves).

It’s up to readers to determine how to read the market at the various support and resistance areas (whether to hold or fade), but the following briefly explains our approach.  Upon price reaching key support and resistance areas, we monitor market dynamics.  Such areas are identified by prior price action areas, floor trader pivots, 50% retracements, and various volume-based tools, including a simplified MarketProfile framework and MIDAS. The dynamics we monitor include short term price charts, order flow (market depth), the tape (time & sales), relative volume, and sentiment (such as NYSE Tick).

The charts:

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The Precise Take – Still consolidating

Big Picture Analysis: We’re entering the news heavy part of the week, though only one more report is out today, which is the Housing Market Index at 10:00 am EST.  Three big reports are released tomorrow before the bell, followed by Philadelphia Fed Survey at 10:00 am, with options expiration on Friday.  While news out of Europe has been driving the US futures overnight (and nearly all the gains in this rally have been from the overnight gap), focus during the day is steadily shifting to domestic headlines.  If this reverses concurrent with a decisive break in the ES below the January 13 overnight 1272.75 low, a short term correction could build steam, going as low as 1210-15.  Otherwise, expect higher highs.

Explanation of 60 minute chart: We have reintroduced some elements into the 60 minute chart, such as the projected range, which long time readers will recognize from the 30 minute chart we used to publish prior to August, 2011.   The reason we had stopped was the expansion of daily range and headline driven market made the projections too arbitrary and not useful.  Should the bear market reassert, we may revert once again, but for now, below is how to read the chart.  (In progress is a way to show more granularity on the right edge price axis.)

The thin horizontal boxes are support and resistance areas of varying strength.  The yellow vertical box to the right is the projected range.  Support and resistance areas that fall at or within its boundaries are ripe for countertrend plays.  The gray boxes are neutral zones, where we would still consider countertrend plays, but with a bit more caution.  The blue and red vertical boxes mark the areas above and below which the market could easily get away from us and countertrend plays are much more risky.  It’s trend days that tend to move only in one direction, closing at the extreme, that tend to punish day traders the most (and keep in mind that down moves are often much more quicker than up moves).

It’s up to readers to determine how to read the market at the various support and resistance areas (whether to hold or fade), but the following briefly explains our approach.  Upon price reaching key support and resistance areas, we monitor market dynamics.  Such areas are identified by prior price action areas, floor trader pivots, 50% retracements, and various volume-based tools, including a simplified MarketProfile framework and MIDAS. The dynamics we monitor include short term price charts, order flow (market depth), the tape (time & sales), relative volume, and sentiment (such as NYSE Tick).

The charts:

Click above images for larger size.

The Precise Take – New highs after downgrades

Big Picture Analysis: Friday, the pre-market selloff continued into the opening hour, but support was found at the lower end of the high volume area we have been monitoring (135 minute chart).  Importantly, though S&P downgraded France, the EFSF and several other entities over the weekend, it appears these events have been priced in, as the ES made a new high at 1302.50 overnight.  Though today’s news is out, it’s a busy week, as earnings season gets underway, along with three housing reports over the next three days, PPI Wednesday, CPI and Philly Fed Thursday, and options expiration on Friday.  Bulls have been increasingly making their case for the intermediate term, while short term there will be plenty of opportunities for shakeouts.

Explanation of 60 minute chart: We have reintroduced some elements into the 60 minute chart, such as the projected range, which long time readers will recognize from the 30 minute chart we used to publish prior to August, 2011.   The reason we had stopped was the expansion of daily range and headline driven market made the projections too arbitrary and not useful.  Should the bear market reassert, we may revert once again, but for now, below is how to read the chart.  (In progress is a way to show more granularity on the right edge price axis.)

The thin horizontal boxes are support and resistance areas of varying strength.  The yellow vertical box to the right is the projected range.  Support and resistance areas that fall at or within its boundaries are ripe for countertrend plays.  The gray boxes are neutral zones, where we would still consider countertrend plays, but with a bit more caution.  The blue and red vertical boxes mark the areas above and below which the market could easily get away from us and countertrend plays are much more risky.  It’s trend days that tend to move only in one direction, closing at the extreme, that tend to punish day traders the most (and keep in mind that down moves are often much more quicker than up moves).

It’s up to readers to determine how to read the market at the various support and resistance areas (whether to hold or fade), but the following briefly explains our approach.  Upon price reaching key support and resistance areas, we monitor market dynamics.  Such areas are identified by prior price action areas, floor trader pivots, 50% retracements, and various volume-based tools, including a simplified MarketProfile framework and MIDAS. The dynamics we monitor include short term price charts, order flow (market depth), the tape (time & sales), relative volume, and sentiment (such as NYSE Tick).

The charts:

Click above images for larger size.

The Precise Take – Index futures down after JPM miss

Big Picture Analysis: Yesterday, the ES sold off after the open and probed as low as 1280.75 before sharply rebounding higher, overnight hitting 1295.00 just before the European open.  As we write, most of these gains have been given back, led by financials after a JPM earnings disappointment.  Some have noted the ascending wedge in the ES on the daily (more compelling on the combined session chart), which indeed might be susceptible to a sharp pullback on a break.  However, in the 135 minute chart below, a considerable amount of volume has traded upwards of 1270 and ought to contain the first pullback.  The flip side is that a break below would likely hit an avalanche of stops and precipitate a sharp selloff, which is what happened in January 2010.

Monday is a US holiday and the markets will be closed, so we might see some squaring ahead of the truncated opex week.  Consumer Sentiment at 9:55 am EST is often a market mover.

Explanation of 60 minute chart: We have reintroduced some elements into the 60 minute chart, such as the projected range, which long time readers will recognize from the 30 minute chart we used to publish prior to August, 2011.   The reason we had stopped was the expansion of daily range and headline driven market made the projections too arbitrary and not useful.  Should the bear market reassert, we may revert once again, but for now, below is how to read the chart.  (In progress is a way to show more granularity on the right edge price axis.)

The thin horizontal boxes are support and resistance areas of varying strength.  The yellow vertical box to the right is the projected range.  Support and resistance areas that fall at or within its boundaries are ripe for countertrend plays.  The gray boxes are neutral zones, where we would still consider countertrend plays, but with a bit more caution.  The blue and red vertical boxes mark the areas above and below which the market could easily get away from us and countertrend plays are much more risky.  It’s trend days that tend to move only in one direction, closing at the extreme, that tend to punish day traders the most (and keep in mind that down moves are often much more quicker than up moves).

It’s up to readers to determine how to read the market at the various support and resistance areas (whether to hold or fade), but the following briefly explains our approach.  Upon price reaching key support and resistance areas, we monitor market dynamics.  Such areas are identified by prior price action areas, floor trader pivots, 50% retracements, and various volume-based tools, including a simplified MarketProfile framework and MIDAS. The dynamics we monitor include short term price charts, order flow (market depth), the tape (time & sales), relative volume, and sentiment (such as NYSE Tick).

The charts:

Click above images for larger size.

The Precise Take – Creeping higher

Big Picture Analysis: As we write, the ES is giving back some of its overnight gains after disappointing Retail Sales and Jobless reports.  The BOE and ECB rate decisions were largely non-events.  Overall, the ES is making higher highs and higher lows.  While that could change, for now bulls retain the short and intermediate term edge.  Business Inventories are out at 10:00 am EST and the Treasury Budget is released at 2:00 pm; however, neither is likely to move the market much unless extremely out of consensus.

Explanation of 60 minute chart: We have reintroduced some elements into the 60 minute chart, such as the projected range, which long time readers will recognize from the 30 minute chart we used to publish prior to August, 2011.   The reason we had stopped was the expansion of daily range and headline driven market made the projections too arbitrary and not useful.  Should the bear market reassert, we may revert once again, but for now, below is how to read the chart.  (In progress is a way to show more granularity on the right edge price axis.)

The thin horizontal boxes are support and resistance areas of varying strength.  The yellow vertical box to the right is the projected range.  Support and resistance areas that fall at or within its boundaries are ripe for countertrend plays.  The gray boxes are neutral zones, where we would still consider countertrend plays, but with a bit more caution.  The blue and red vertical boxes mark the areas above and below which the market could easily get away from us and countertrend plays are much more risky.  It’s trend days that tend to move only in one direction, closing at the extreme, that tend to punish day traders the most (and keep in mind that down moves are often much more quicker than up moves).

It’s up to readers to determine how to read the market at the various support and resistance areas (whether to hold or fade), but the following briefly explains our approach.  Upon price reaching key support and resistance areas, we monitor market dynamics.  Such areas are identified by prior price action areas, floor trader pivots, 50% retracements, and various volume-based tools, including a simplified MarketProfile framework and MIDAS. The dynamics we monitor include short term price charts, order flow (market depth), the tape (time & sales), relative volume, and sentiment (such as NYSE Tick).

The charts:

Click above images for larger size.